Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Focus Features / Universal Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 20, 2023): Formerly called “The Pot-au-Feu,” IFC is giving “The Taste of Things” a full push and qualifying run to be considered in all general categories, including best picture. One of the movie’s stars Juliette Binoche will be among the actors submitted for her performance as Eugenie, an esteemed cook in the early 1900s of France. Variety has learned exclusively that she will be submitted for supporting actress consideration for her turn in Trần Anh Hùng’s drama.
The French Oscar hopeful for international feature (if selected) received critical acclaim after its premiere, winning the best director prize for French-Vietnamese filmmaker Hùng, best known for helming the “The Scent of Green Papaya” (1993), the first and only Vietnamese nominee for best international feature.
Binoche is an Oscar-winner for “The English Patient” (1996) for best supporting actress, in addition to receiving a lead actress nom for “Chocolat” (2000).
The week’s big news is Lily Gladstone has vacated the supporting actress category to vie for leading actress attention. The move has thrown his entire category into chaos. Who benefits from her exit?
There’s an argument for any of the listed contenders race to take the top spot.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the heart and soul of Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers,” and following the movie placing second for the TIFF Audience Award, I wouldn’t count out the possibility of her becoming a sure-fire way to reward the film (mainly if “Barbie” stays the course in original screenplay).
Netflix confirmed to Variety that Julianne Moore will be submitted for supporting actress consideration for “May December,” she could also be a benefactor of Gladstone’s move.
A24
Actor Sandra Hüller could be the critical darling of awards season with two acclaimed performances in two high-profile international feature contenders, France’s “Anatomy of a Fall” from Justine Triet and United Kingdom’s “The Zone of Interest” from Jonathan Glazer. She’s seeking supporting consideration for the latter.
Hüller is one of the most acclaimed international actors working today. She made her breakout in Hans-Christian Schmid’s “Requiem” (2006), where she won the Silver Bear for best actress, in addition to garnering significant recognition in Maren Ade’s dramedy “Toni Erdmann” (2016). The latter represented Austria for best international feature.
If nominated for “Anatomy” and “Zone,” Hüller would be the first actress to be double nominated for two non-English language performances in the same year.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Erika Alexander — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
Also In Contention
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Issa Rae — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Maya Hawke — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
- Audra McDonald — “Origin” (Neon)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Patti LuPone — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Jurnee Smollett – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Jodie Comer – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)
- Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jurnee Smollett – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Allison Oliver — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) **
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathy Bates – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jessica Chastain – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **
- Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Natalie Portman – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Vera Farmiga – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Niecy Nash – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Connie Nielsen – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Marion Cotillard – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Noémie Merlant – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Andrea Riseborough – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Lashana Lynch – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Celia Weston – “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Olivia Colman – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.