Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 14, 2023): TIFF is still underway, and there are some films that are living up to expectations (and then some).
Some of the breakouts include MGM’s “American Fiction” from writer-director Cord Jefferson and starring veteran actor Jeffrey Wright, who could factor into an already crowded best actor race that includes Paul Giamatti from “The Holdovers” and Colman Domingo from “Rustin,” which also screened at TIFF. The comedy could also make noise in an adapted screenplay race that’s also getting oversaturated, even with the news that “Barbie” will campaign for original screenplay.
Ava DuVernay’s “Origin,” which Neon acquired, is also a viable across-the-board contender (with the right campaign push). Starring Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, the drama is incredibly moving and could be that late-breaker that runs away with it once people discover it.
Now, all eyes are on which film will walk away with TIFF’s most coveted audience prize, with more than a few films likely drumming up support. There are five movies that feel like possibilities to win the Audience Award — Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron,” Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers,” Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction,” Ava DuVernay’s “Origin” and George C. Wolfe’s “Rustin.”
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary voting for the shortlists will begin on Dec. 1,8, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The nominations voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER