Good morning, and welcome to another day in US politics. Like most recent days in Washington and out on the campaign trail, this one promises to be filled with fun. (Depending on your definition of “fun”, natch.) To wit:

• Early this morning, after various rightwing, pro-Trump senators mounted an old-fashioned all-night talkathon, the Senate passed a $95bn aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The problem is that it now has to pass the House, where the pro-Trump Republican right is very unlikely to leave it unscathed. The House speaker, Mike “Moses” Johnson (that’s not really his middle name or even his nickname, but see here), issued the following statement: “In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters. America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” Of that status quo: pro-Trump Republicans in the Senate, you’ll remember, last week tanked their own border and immigration deal, reached after months of negotiations with Democrats, at their master’s behest.

• Next: today could be the day that the House makes Alejandro Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, the first cabinet official to be impeached since William Belknap, Ulysses S Grant’s really rather corrupt secretary of war, in 1876. Of course, success in said vote will require basic procedural competence from Johnson and the rest of Republican House leadership – last week, on their first try, they lost. The weather – a big storm on the US east coast – and other imponderables could yet affect the second attempt to impeach Mayorkas, which is expected tonight. If Republicans manage to get it done, an impeachment on purely political grounds will be deader than dead in the Senate, where Democrats are hardly likely to allow a trial in a presidential election year.

• Outside Washington, today’s the day for a special election on Long Island in New York, where the Republican Mazi Pilip and the Democrat Tom Suozzi (a former occupant of the seat) are competing to replace George Santos, the indicted fabulist who became only the sixth member of the US House ever to be expelled. Predictions are for very low turnout – maybe even lower than low, given that storm expected to dump a lot of snow on New York – and a razor-thin margin. The newsletters I’m reading think Suozzi might edge it. Either way, it’s a contest with huge implications for Republican control of the House, already evidently a rather chaotic, slim-margin thing, and for national rune-reading in an election year.

• And after all that, there is the continued spectacle of speculation over the effect of the special counsel Robert Hur’s decision to play neurologist and, while declining to indict Joe Biden over his retention of classified information, nonetheless discuss in great detail the 81-year-old president’s alleged problems with long- and short-term memory, including on matters of great personal concern. Expect the White House and Democrats to continue to hit back, attacking Hur, and Republicans and Donald Trump (77 and, um, apparently not sharp as a tack himself) to keep attacking Biden. Axios has worrying news for Democrats, though: Republicans, the site says, are planning to call Hur to testify in the Congress on his report (a normal step for special counsels) and publication of transcripts of presidential interviews are also likely to be released.

In short, there’s a lot on. More follows.