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Hurricane Beryl’s Forecast As It Speeds Toward Jamaica

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Hurricane Beryl, a Category 4 storm that swept through the Caribbean this week killing at least seven people and causing destruction, will pass near or over Jamaica on Wednesday afternoon, forecasters warned. Officials on the island have urged residents to prepare for what is expected to be a dangerous and difficult day with strong winds and heavy rains that may bring life-threatening flash floods.

Beryl’s well-defined eye, the calm area typically devoid of clouds in the center of a hurricane, was filled in early Wednesday morning on weather satellite imagery, a sign that the major hurricane may continue to weaken. Forecasters still face challenges predicting how much its intensity will decrease as it churns toward the Yucatán and how much it may restrengthen as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

  • The storm surge accompanying Beryl is expected to raise water levels by up to nine feet along the coast of Jamaica as the storm passes over the island around Wednesday afternoon. The storm is expected to bring up to eight inches of rain across the island, with isolated amounts up to a foot. The heavy downpours may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

  • Beryl will approach the Cayman Islands overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with hurricane conditions and two to four feet of storm surge.

  • Beryl devastated islands in Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, killing at least four people, after making landfall earlier on Monday as a Category 4 hurricane. Another three people died in northern Venezuela, where the storm caused heavy rains and flooding.

  • By the weekend, the storm is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, and it is quite possible it could restrengthen into a hurricane after passing over the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday. It’s expected to make another landfall somewhere along the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday, but how strong and the exact path it takes is still uncertain.

  • The Mexican government issued a hurricane watch for the peninsula’s east coast where hurricane-force winds and a three- to five-foot storm surge is possible Thursday into Friday. The government of Belize issued a tropical storm watch stretching south from the country’s border with Mexico to Belize City.

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Beryl is the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean, according to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University who specializes in tropical cyclones. The previous record was set by Hurricane Emily on July 17, 2005, he said.

By early Wednesday, the hurricane had weakened slightly to winds of 145 miles per hour, having peaked on Tuesday with sustained wind speeds of 165 m.p.h., the center said. The weakening trend was likely to continue over the next couple of days. A hurricane needs wind speeds of at least 157 m.p.h. to be classified as a Category 5. A hurricane with winds of at least 111 m.p.h. is considered a major storm.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and a hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions were expected on Wednesday, the center said. The government of the Cayman Islands issued a hurricane warning on Tuesday afternoon for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have become more likely to grow from a weak storm into a major Category 3 or higher hurricane within just 24 hours, according to a study published last year.

“We have to rebuild from the ground up,” Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell of Grenada said in a news briefing. Roughly 98 percent of the buildings on the islands, where about 6,000 people live, had been damaged or destroyed, including the main health facility in Carriacou.

Conditions in region had not improved by Tuesday night, with communications down and no electricity on either island. “There is literally no vegetation left anywhere on the island of Carriacou, the mangroves are totally destroyed,” Mr. Mitchell said.

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Despite the destruction, there were no loud concerns over the country’s water supply. Terrence Smith, the head of Grenada’s water agency, said the storm damage was not expected to immediately cause a life-threatening shortage on Carriacou and Petite Martinique.

Just north, several islands in St. Vincent and the Grenadines also suffered “immense destruction,” Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said in a social media briefing.

Read more about the scene on Grenada here.

Forecasters have warned that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be much more active than usual.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 17 to 25 named storms this year, an “above-normal” number and a prediction in line with more than a dozen forecasts earlier in the year from experts at universities, private companies and government agencies. Hurricane seasons produce 14 named storms, on average.

Johnny Diaz, John Yoon, John Keefe, Mike Ives, Kenton X. Chance, Aimee Ortiz Derrick Bryson Taylor Julius Gittens, Remy Tumin, Jesus Jiménez, Orlando Mayorquín Sharefil Gaillard, Linda Straker and Yan Zhuang contributed reporting.



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