Good morning from Cleveland,
The Padres scored more than four runs for the first time in eight games. They won for the second time in nine games.
They needed to score like that. They needed to win. Badly.
You can read in my game story (here) about how the Padres’ 7-0 victory over the Guardians last night came together and why they felt that was significant.
It is important that a frigid offense heat up and that a struggling team at least continue to tread water.
But the thing to talk about this morning is Dylan Cease.
It doesn’t get much better than watching Cease when he is on.
“He was some kind of special tonight,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “He just dominated us tonight.”
For the second straight game, Cease allowed one hit and no runs and achieved double-digit strikeouts. He is the first Padres pitcher to ever do that.
And here is the list of major league pitchers to have done that over a two-start span during the Expansion Era (since 1961):
“I think just a little adjustment has just gotten me in a really good place to where my stuff is sharp and I’m executing more consistently,” Cease said.
I wrote (here) about that alteration to his delivery after his last start. Essentially, he is keeping his hands closer to to his body during his delivery, allowing him to stay more “in sync.” The average velocity on his fastball has crept up about 1.5 mph (to 98.4), and he said all his pitches are more consistent.
Vogt said it seemed like the pitch Tyler Freeman hit for a triple in the third inning was the only one Cease left out over the plate. He wasn’t quite that good. But close.
This is the Cease the Padres traded for in March, sending away two of their top five pitching prospects and reliever Steven Wilson and committing $8 million to Cease this season.
That he remains this pitcher is imperative if they are to make the postseason.
Here is a look at Cease’s season so far, in three acts:
“Sometimes you go through stretches where you just kind of have to battle and keep working through it,” Cease said. “And those aren’t very fun, but when you get to the other side of them, it’s a fun, pleasant experience. But ultimately, we still have a long way to go, and I’m not hanging my hat on these. I want more. … I just think I’m executing at a really high clip right now. And they’re not picking it up well. But there’s always room for more. I just gotta maintain my focus, keep preparing and treat every lineup with the same focus and intensity.”
Walk this way
Before his bases-loaded walk in the fourth inning last night, Luis Arraez had gone 53 plate appearances without a walk and was walking at a career-low 3.6 percent rate this season.
“I told you, I don’t trust umpires,” Arraez said after the game.
He was referring to a conversation Friday about why his walk rate is down, in which he lamented that he is having more 0-0 pitches outside the strike zone called strikes this season.
“Sometimes,” Arraez said Friday, “when I take my first pitch and it’s a ball and they call strike, I go, ‘Let’s put the ball in play and see what happens.’”
It is true that Arraez has had a few more first-pitch balls called strikes this season — 11 percent of all his 0-0 takes compared to nine percent in 2023. But it is happening at about the same rate as previously in his career, from 2019 through ’23. He is also having more 0-0 pitches called strikes this season (51 percent) than previously (47 percent).
“When I get a (two-strike) count, I don’t want to take that pitch close to the zone, because then I strike out,” he said Friday. “I hate strikeouts.”
No one has struck out less frequently since 2019 than Arraez’s 7.3 percent.
So what did he do after saying all that? He walked twice last night.
In his eight-pitch walk in the fourth inning against Guardians starter Gavin Williams, Arraez took a strike and fouled off a pitch before seeing his first ball. He then fouled off a curveball below the zone and a 98 mph fastball up and on the inner third. Three balls nowhere near the plate followed.
“I was just fighting with the bases loaded,” he said. “I just tried to put the ball in play and didn’t do that. So I took the walk.”
One issue that keeps Arraez from walking is that he is wonderfully undisciplined at the plate, in large part because he is able to put the bat on the ball no matter where it is. He is batting .320 this season on pitches outside the zone.
But he has always been a free swinger.
The Padres have suggested he try to get back to walking more. Arraez went into yesterday batting a robust .312 but with a .344 on-base percentage that was 35 points off his career mark.
His second walk last night looked like he had a goal in mind.
Arraez did not swing at any of the five pitches he saw in the sixth inning from left-handed reliever Tim Herrin, and only one of them was an obvious ball. In fact, Arraez got a ball call on a slider that was clearly in the zone.
“He didn’t throw strikes to me,” he said. “So I took the walk.”
Up and down
Jackson Merrill struck out his first time up last night, running his streak to five at-bats, before getting the Padres’ three-run fourth inning started with a double.
Merrill finished 2-for-5 with three strikeouts.
It was the rookie’s second multi-hit game in 13 games in July and his sixth time with multiple strikeouts this month.
Here is a comparison of Merrill’s numbers through June 30 and since July 1:
Rotation equation
The Padres do not need a fifth starter until Saturday against Baltimore, and they likely will not use one until then.
After Michael King pitches in today’s series finale against the Guardians, the Padres are off tomorrow. Shildt was not ready to commit to Randy Vasquez starting Tuesday against the Nationals, but that is who is on turn and is expected to pitch.
Matt Waldron and Cease will almost certainly face the Nationals the next two days with King opening the series against the Orioles on Friday.
Jhony Brito, who was sent down to Triple-A to get stretched out and work on a splitter, is being looked at to start Saturday. However, he did not make his scheduled start for El Paso a couple nights ago due to discomfort in his forearm, so his availability will be somewhat dependent on his health.
The other possibilities for that day include a pitcher acquired via trade or a bullpen game. The Padres could also call up Adam Mazur, Gabe Mosser or Nabil Crismatt to start.
Catcher up
Luis Campusano started his third game since coming off the injured list on July 5.
He has caught Cease exclusively in that time, as the bulk of the starts behind the plate have gone to Kyle Higashioka.
That is a reverse from early in the season, and it could see some further alteration if Campusano continues to hit like he has recently.
He was 2-for-4 with a pair of RBI singles last night. That followed his hitting a pinch-hit homer on July 14 against the Braves.
Shildt said the determination of which catcher starts will be a combination of who is hot, matchups with pitchers and schedule.
Higashioka will almost certainly catch for King this afternoon after a night game and again for Vasquez, who he has worked with since their time with the Yankees and has handled well this season. Higashioka also cacthes for Waldron. Campusano appears locked in with Cease.
Musgrove update
Joe Musgrove, who has been sidelined since late May by elbow discomfort, threw his second full bullpen session Saturday. Among the 30 pitches he threw were some breaking balls. He had thrown exclusively fastballs in his first bullpen.
Musgrove said the session went “really good.”
He is expected to throw off the mound two more times on this trip before possibly facing hitters.
Making it work
Jeremiah Estrada took six pitches to get through the eighth inning last night, and Yuki Matsui finished off the game by throwing 12 pitches in the ninth.
The Padres pulling away with four runs in the eighth inning allowed manager Mike Shildt to stay away from Robert Suarez. And since Shildt chose to not “chase” a victory Friday night, declining to use any of his high-leverage relievers when the Padres were down a run in the seventh, he has Suarez, Estrada and Adrián Morejón available today.
That is good.
But the fact is Shildt’s plight is that he is searching for someone who can be consistently effective holding a one-run deficit. The latest to get that opportunity (and fail) was Stephen Kolek on Friday.
Said Shildt: “Really good teams to great teams have bullpens that are deep — that when you’re down a run or two can hold it right there.”
Tidbits
- The Padres scored four runs in an inning last night for the first time since July 5. Even after that drought, their 34 innings with four or more runs lead the major leagues.
- Cease took over the MLB lead with 159 strikeouts.
- David Peralta was 2-for-3 with a home run and a walk last night. He is 12-for-37 (.324) with two doubles and two homers in 11 starts since assuming the starting job in right field.
- Xander Bogaerts was 2-for-5 last night and has two hits in three of his four games since coming off the IL.
- Manny Machado was 0-for-5 last night and is batting .161 (5-for-30) over his past eight games.
- Jurickson Profar’s strikeout in the fourth inning last night was his first time not driving in a run in seven plate appearances with the bases loaded this season. Profar has two grand slams, two doubles, a single and a walk with the bases loaded in 2024.
- Profar passed 400 plate appearances for the season last night, earning another $200,000. The All-Star left fielder has added $500,000 to his $1 million base salary so far and could make another $1 million by reaching 600 plate appearances.
- Bryce Miller wrote (here) about the robo umps with some input from Padres people. The robo umps are coming, eventually.
All right, that’s it for me. Early game (10:40 a.m. PT) today.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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