Good morning,
After a good night for the Padres.
What happened last night at Petco Park was about as positive a development as has occurred for the team this season — given the stage they are at, the position they are in and the caliber of player involved and the role he can play.
Joe Musgrove threw 4⅓ scoreless innings in his first major league start since May 26. He was incredibly sharp for a guy who made one real rehab start and retooled his delivery over the past two months. There were a few times he even looked like the Joe Musgrove who has pitched some of the biggest games in Padres history and was one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the major leagues for the better part of the past three seasons.
You can read some of the particulars in my game story (here) from the Padres’ 2-1 victory over the Pirates.
But Musgrove showing promise that he could be a factor late in the season and into October is big enough to talk about some more.
Xander Bogaerts was not on the Padres in 2022 when Musgrove went seven shutout innings in the deciding game of the National League wild-card series in New York and allowed two runs over six innings against the Dodgers in the deciding game of the Division Series. But Bogaerts watched the games on TV. And he has his own playoff experience, having won two World Series rings with the Red Sox.
“We need him,” Bogaerts said of Musgrove. “You ain’t getting where you want to get to without him. We have really good guys that have filled in. But big time, big games, it’s a little different. That’s a guy who’s been there. It gets different.”
The Padres are tied for the top wild-card playoff spot in the National League with 42 regular season games remaining.
It could be a tight race to the end.
So just having another dependable starter is big.
The Padres have a stretch of 18 games in 18 days beginning Friday.
And looking down the road, a couple of their best starting pitchers are swimming past the buoys at this point. They might be able to keep going as long as needed. They might not.
Matt Waldron has thrown 132⅔ innings in his first full season in the major leagues, 19 more innings than his previous high in professional baseball. Michael King is in his first season as a starter and is 24⅔ innings past his major league high of 104 inning set last year and 32 innings shy of his minor-league high of 161 ⅓ achieved in 2018.
The Padres do not anticipate doing so, but it is possible either one of them could have their innings tapered or even be shut down before the end of the season or in the playoffs.
The Padres acquired Martín Pérez at the trade deadline to fill innings. It has been a bonus that the lefthander, who threw 452 innings from 2021-23, has also turned in two quality starts since joining the team.
And there remains the possibility Yu Darvish returns in September. The right-hander, who turns 38 on Friday, is on the restricted list while tending to a family matter but has been staying in shape, including throwing. Team officials have steadfastly protected Darvish’s privacy and continue to say it is up to him and that they have no clarity on whether he will be back.
So Musgrove returning in a way that suggests he will be his old self makes it so the Padres don’t have to count as much on other pitchers coming through in ways they might not actually be capable of.
Spurred on
Musgrove plans to pitch with the bone spur in his right elbow for as long as he can. Possiby for the rest of his career, which is something plenty of pitchers have done.
The spur, which he has had for years and that he believes became symptomatic when he began throwing a sweeper, is considered small.
And while the arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs is, relatively speaking, not a major one, there is risk. One thing the procedure sometimes results in is a pitcher’s arm having more range of motion, which means their UCL is stretched more.
It is Musgrove’s understanding that something like 20-25 percent of pitchers who have surgery to remove bone spurs end up having Tommy John surgery.
“I’m doing everything I can to avoid that,” Musgrove said. “… I’ve been really good at avoiding the elbow issues throughout my career — the serious ones. So I’m not going to do anything to make me more susceptible to it.”
Musgrove believes the work he has done to increase flexibility, close off his shoulders more during his delivery and use his legs more has sufficiently alleviated stress on his elbow.
Too much good stuff
The Padres have won 17 of their past 20 games, something that in franchise history had been accomplished by just the 2005 and 1989 clubs.
But there has to be some concern regarding how they are having to go about winning these games. It is an issue that continues to nip at the Padres’ heels, and it could actually bite them if it doesn’t stop as soon as tonight.
They are not scoring much early in games, meaning the pressure is on throughout. They are winning, but barely. And their best relievers are working a lot in the process. It threatens to become too much at some point.
Last night’s shorter outing by Musgrove was expected, but it was the eighth time in the past 15 games the Padres have had to use their relievers for four or more innings. It was the 11th time the bullpen has been called on to get more than nine outs. The Padres have gotten just three quality starts in that span.
Further, while the Padres have scored 40 runs over their past six games, just 15 of those runs have come in the first six innings.
And because the games are close, the innings the relievers are working are stressful. And the team’s higher-leverage arms are working a lot.
Robert Suarez was throwing 101 mph and, in fact, matched his top velocity of the season at 101.9 mph in last night’s ninth inning. But he also allowed a run on two hits while pitching for the fourth time in six days. Tanner Scott also pitched a fourth time in six days, protecting what was a one-run lead in the eighth.
Jeremiah Estrada stepped up to work a scoreless seventh last night, bouncing back from a tough outing Saturday. He got the win after entering a 0-0 game and having the Padres score in the bottom of the inning. The 25-year-old Estrada has pitched 45⅓ innings this season, three times as many as he worked in his two previous big-league campaigns combined and almost equal to his career high in the minors.
Adrián Morejón had the flu and was unavailable last night, and there is no guarantee he will be OK tonight.
Jason Adam did get the night off after pitching three of the previous four days.
The Padres will play their eighth game in eight days tonight and play again tomorrow before having Thursday and then embarking on the aforementioned 18 in 18.
The offense would do the staff a favor to score some runs earlier the next couple games.
Just because they have shiny new toys in the bullpen doesn’t mean they should play with them so much.
More Action
Jackson Merrill launched himself perhaps all the way into the frontrunner position in the Rookie of the Year race — not that he cares — by saving the Padres with game-tying home runs last week.
Last night, he saved them in the field.
With a runner on first base who would have scored the tying run, Merrill ran 58 feet from a position in deep center and made a diving catch on a sinking line drive by Bryan Reynolds for the final out of the game.
Jackson Merrill are you serious?!
Ballgame over in San Diego! pic.twitter.com/Yft9v7GBgc
— MLB (@MLB) August 13, 2024
“I was (lined up) pretty far on the left side, and it was lay out or nothing,” Merrill said. “In that situation, I don’t think there’s a way I can field that and throw it in. I think I have to go get it and try to catch it. It was one of those black out adrenaline moments that happens.”
Remember, Merrill played shortstop in the minor leagues. Five games in left field in Double-A was his game experience in the outfield before this year.
“Center’s just fun,” he said. “I don’t think any other way than it is fun. Because the outfield, you’re running around, catching a baseball like you were when you were 5 years old. So I kind of treat center field as the fun, kind of more relaxed position that you can play on the baseball field.”
More love for Jackson
Bryce Miller spent some time with North County resident Fred Lynn, the 1975 Rookie of the Year and nine-time All-Star.
Bryce wrote (here) about Lynn’s thoughts on Merrill’s Rookie of the Year candidacy.
Lynn thinks the competition isn’t even close and that Merrill is far and away the choice over Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes.
That is going to be an especially cool thing for Josh Merrill, Jackson’s dad, to read. Josh grew up a Red Sox fan in the era when Lynn was starring in center field for them, and Lynn was one of his favorite players.
Speaking of Red Sox standouts and their thoughts on Merrill, Bogaerts has been among the rookie’s biggest boosters since before last season.
On Monday, Bogaerts told a group of media members that Merrill is better than he was at age 21, when he was a year away from winning the first of his five Silver Slugger awards with the Red Sox.
That was a bit much for Merrill, who followed in his dad’s footsteps as a Red Sox fan and grew up watching Bogaerts.
“That’s a crazy thing to say,” Merrill said. “I would never say that. No, X is awesome. I watched him growing up. I wouldn’t say it’s wrong, but …”
Channeling Manny
Donovan Solano started at third base for the first time since July 24, as Manny Machado sat for the first time since that date.
It looked like Machado was still out there on a couple plays in the fifth inning.
First, Solano ran in to barehand a bunt and throw out Michael A. Taylor for the second out.
Didn’t know Manny was at 3B tonight pic.twitter.com/ayy6vQP9xa
— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) August 13, 2024
Then Solano really stepped up his Manny impression.
The next batter, Andrew McCutchen, grounded a ball down the line that Solano fielded as his momentum carried him into foul territory. He quickly transferred the ball and threw across his body and across the diamond to get McCutchen.
https://t.co/prjvmZaD6x pic.twitter.com/9cs3VbMSXV
— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) August 13, 2024
It was not as seamless and quick as Machado, but it was close enough for a 36-year-old fill-in.
Turns out, Machado had a hand in the plays.
“I talk a lot with Manny,” Solano said. “I say, ‘Teach me. You’re the Ministro. What do I need to do?’ He gave me a lot of (advice) about moving and throws. He helps me a lot.”
Solano, an 11-year veteran, had started 71 games at third base in his career before this season. Last night was his 24th start there for the Padres.
“He sees me make plays in practice; I stop and throw,” Solano said. “He said, ‘No, don’t do that. Use your momentum. Catch it and try to find a way to throw.’ I tell him, ‘You play like that because you’ve got the arm.’ But I continue to practice. I feel more comfortable. I trust my ability.”
Solano was 0-for-3 last night but is still batting .308 with a .787 OPS in 67 games since joining the Padres on May 5. Last night was just his eighth start in the past 24 games, as he went from playing virtually every day to the odd man out when Bogaerts returned from the injured list.
“I work so hard every day for any opportunity,” Solano said. “… When I play like that, it takes stress off everybody, even the manager. It’s good, because he can trust me.”
No walking this way
The Padres have not drawn a walk in either of the past two games, bringing their total to 13 walkess games this season. That is their most in any year since they had 14 such games in 2018.
“The walk can be a good result,” hitting coach Victor Rodriguez said. “But it is never our goal. We’re always going to be looking to hit.”
The Padres walked more than any team in the majors last season. And while that total was greatly boosted by Juan Soto, the team’s walk rate had increased over the previous four years as part of an emphasis on upping their on-base percentage.
That worked to some extent, as the Padres went from last in the majors in OBP every year from 2015 to ‘18 to perennially ranked in the top 10. But their ranking in slugging percentage was generally down. It was a tradeoff that often did not seem worth it.
In the first year under Rodriguez’s direction, the Padres lead the major leagues in batting average (.265) and are seventh in on-base percentage (.325) and ninth in slugging (.417).
Here is a look at where they have ranked in average, OBP, slugging and runs scored over the past four seasons:
They’ll take it
The Pirates have helped the Padres to runs — mostly crucial ones — in all four games they have played against each other the past week.
Last night, they assisted in both Padres runs.
In the seventh inning, Jurickson Profar doubled and went to third base on a wild pitch. That shifted the infielders, possibly creating a hole for Bogaerts to ground an RBI single through.
In the eighth, with Bryce Johnson on first base after an infield single, Ha-Seong Kim lined a single to the gap in shallow right-center. Johnson rounded second hard but stopped — until he saw that right fielder Bryan De La Cruz, who had lifted his head to look at Johnson, had the ball go off his glove. With that, Johnson sped up again and advanced to third. He scored when the next batter, Kyle Higashioka, hit a sacrifice fly to deep left.
“Baserunning is huge,” Bogaerts said. “Advancing base to base on little miscues, being aggressive, forcing their hand.”
This isn’t pointed out to diminish the Padres’ victories. This is what good teams do to teams that aren’t quite good. It’s what used to happen in the reverse to the Padres.
As Bogaerts said last night, “We’re taking advantage.”
Pérez revitalized
Jeff Sanders wrote (here) yesterday about Pérez, who will face the team that traded him to the Padres on July 30.
Perez, who is in his 13th major league season, was hailed as a mentor for the Pirates’ young pitchers in his only season in Pittsburgh.
He had a 5.20 ERA in 16 starts for the Pirates. But it seems clear that coming to the Padres has provided a boost for him.
That has been evident in his allowing one run in six innings in his Padres debut and two runs in seven innings in his last start. Plus, he said so.
“They bring me here because they need me,” he said after his start in Miami on Friday. “I’ve got good focus. We need to win games. I just clear my mind. I’m saying, ‘I have to pitch.’ I’ve been doing that my last two starts. We’re getting at the end what we want. We have a big chance to make it to the playoffs. … This is a good team. We always compete to the last out. That’s something this team has. This team has made me feel better and made me a better pitcher.”
Tidbits
- Bryan Hoeing took over Musgrove last night and threw 1⅔ scoreless innings, running his streak to 7⅓ scoreless innings in four appearances for the Padres. He also did not allow a run in his final 4⅓ innings (three games) for the Marlins before being traded on July 30.
- Kim was 2-for-3 last night and is 6-for-14 in a four-game hitting streak, raising his batting average seven points (to .230) in that span. Kim also stole his league-leading 22nd base.
- The Padres are 49-11 when they score first. That is an MLB-best .817 winning percentage.
- The Padres improved to 4-14 when scoring two runs in a game.
- Left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta, on the injured list since July 10 with a left adductor strain, is expected to throw off a mound for the first time in the next day or two.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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Originally Published: