The situation around Israel has grown increasingly volatile, and it is essential to understand the driving forces behind the conflict — particularly the intentions of Hezbollah.
Although the narrative around international negotiations and peace talks often focus on proportional responses and de-escalation strategies, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Hezbollah’s overarching goal is clear: the establishment of an Islamic state in Lebanon and, accordingly, the “liberation” of Jerusalem from the Jews. This ambition has significant implications for regional stability and international efforts to defuse the growing hostilities.
The world watched in horror as Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, but less well-known was that Hezbollah was preparing to launch a simultaneous invasion of Israel alongside Hamas.
Fortunately, the Israel Defense Forces had already substantially degraded Hezbollah’s capacity to invade, which played a crucial role in delaying the expansion of the war into Israel’s north. But the threat from Hezbollah remains acute, as evidenced by their ongoing military buildup as well as daily rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel.
Since Oct. 8, Hezbollah has launched more than 2,700 attacks against Israel, including an estimated 1,000 UAVs and more than 10,000 anti-tank missiles and rockets, which claimed the lives of 25 civilians and 20 soldiers. At the same time, approximately 60,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes due to the daily attacks and threat of invasion and cannot return to their homes.
This mass displacement highlights the immediate and severe impact of Hezbollah’s operations on civilian life and underscores the necessity for robust preventive measures. As the situation continues to deteriorate, it is vital that any ceasefire agreement focused on the return of Israeli hostages from Gaza also incorporate rigorous mechanisms for monitoring Hezbollah’s disarmament in south Lebanon. Without such oversight, there is a substantial risk that the terror group could rebuild its military capabilities and resume hostilities in the future.
The dominant narrative suggesting that a limited response can lead to de-escalation oversimplifies the complexities of the situation. While international negotiators, including the U.S., urge restraint to avoid a full-scale war, this perspective often underestimates the severity of the threat posed daily by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed forces. It is crucial to recognize that Iran’s backing of Hezbollah is not merely a strategic maneuver but a conscious and constant effort to destabilize Israel in their quest for regional hegemony.
Hezbollah’s actions are a testament to this aggressive strategy. Despite efforts to downplay their intentions, the ongoing barrage of rocket attacks, anti-tank missiles and UAV strikes against northern Israel reveals the truth: These attacks are not isolated incidents but part of a larger campaign designed to wipe Israel off the map.
In this context, the notion that Iran is committed to avoiding escalation while Hezbollah continues its attacks is a false narrative. Iran’s claims to seek a negotiated peace are undermined by its persistent support for hostile actions against Israel. Iran seeks and benefits from prolonged conflict and instability in the region, and its actions through proxies, including Hezbollah, are a direct manifestation of this strategy.
Any nation subjected to such sustained violence would not think twice to respond forcefully and protect its civilians. Israel’s response, characterized by limited offensive measures, defensive efforts and evacuations, is a testament to its commitment to protecting civilians while navigating an incredibly precarious situation.
As we move forward, it is imperative that any ceasefire agreement include robust, independent mechanisms for monitoring and verification. This will help ensure that Hezbollah cannot exploit the lull in hostilities to rearm and prepare for future attacks. The current approach of managing limited responses and hoping for de-escalation is inadequate given the scale of the threat posed by Hezbollah and its Iranian backers.
Understanding Hezbollah’s true goals and the broader implications of their actions is essential for developing effective strategies to address this ongoing conflict. It is not enough to rely on superficial assessments of proportionality and restraint. A comprehensive approach that includes vigilant monitoring and robust safeguards is necessary to ensure that any ceasefire holds and that the threat from Hezbollah is genuinely squelched.
Sarit Zehavi is founder and president of the Alma center for research and education, a lieutenant colonel in the Israeli Defense Forces, and an adviser to the Council for a Secure America.