Good morning,

The Padres are in control.

If they win all seven of their remaining games, they are assured of winning the National League West for the first time since 2006.

The Dodgers lost to the Rockies last night shortly after the Padres completed their 6-2 victory over the White Sox (game story here).

That meant the Padres pulled to within three games of L.A., the same number of games the teams play next week, starting Tuesday at Dodger Stadium. The Padres have already secured the season series against the Dodgers, having won seven of their 10 meetings, so the Padres would win a tiebreaker if the teams finish with identical records.

Conceivably, the Padres could be atop the division by Wednesday and need only to hold on through the weekend.

They could be celebrating a playoff berth by this evening.

“Just win and see,” Jurickson Profar said last night. “There are bigger goals. It’s just one step.”

Like getting homefield advantage.

“We want to play at home,” Profar said. “So we have to keep winning.”

And like possibly winning the division.

“Yes, the division,” he said.

Then he paused.

“But I don’t know, I don’t know,” he continued. “Me, personally, the layoff, it wasn’t good for the Dodgers. It wasn’t good for the Braves. I don’t know.”

Profar referred to the fact that the division winners with the two best records get a bye in the wild-card round. The Dodgers and Braves have lost in their first round after the bye each of the two years the current playoff format has existed.

“Let’s play our best baseball,” Profar said. “And it will be there for us.”

Updated playoff picture

The Diamondbacks, Braves and Mets all won yesterday, so the wild-card standings remained unchanged.

In consultation with the Padres, who verified with MLB, here is the bottom line:

The Padres can clinch a playoff berth today if they win and the Braves and Mets lose.

In that case, the Padres could finish no worse than 90-72, and the Braves’ best possible record would be 90-72. The Padres would win that head-to-head tiebreaker. And to get to 90 wins, the Braves would have swept the Mets next week, meaning the Mets could finish no better than 89-73.

However, even if the Padres win but the Braves or Mets win Sunday, the possibility for a three-team tie between the Padres, Mets and Braves exists. While the Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Braves by virtue of having won the season series, a three-way tie between the Mets, Braves and Padres could potentially eliminate the Padres.

For that to happen, it would likely take the Padres losing at least five of their remaining seven games while the Mets win at least five of seven and the Braves win all seven. But if it did happen, the Braves would win the three-team tiebreaker based on having the best winning percentage among the three teams against each other. The Mets would then win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Padres.

In that scenario, the only way the Padres could make the postseason would be to finish ahead of the Diamondbacks.

And the reality is the Braves are the only team that seems likely to nosedive at this point. They have lost four of their past seven and are just 31-29 since the All-Star break.

These are the top five teams in the major leagues since the break:

I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter that the Padres needed only to win yesterday and today and have the Braves lose one of those days in order to clinch. That was incorrect. I left out the Mets component.

I had asked questions and believed I understood what was necessary. But I did not take into account every possible permutation and how that could potentially affect a three-team tiebreaker. I thought I had it, and I was wrong. I am sorry. I need to be correct every time.

Milestone

Should the Padres win today, Mike Shildt will have accomplished something no other major league manager ever has.

He will have won at least 90 games in each of his first three seasons in which it was possible — and will have done it with two different teams.

There have been 13 managers in major league history to have won 90 games in their first three seasons in which it was possible. But all of them have done so with one team.

Shildt took over as Cardinals manager in the middle of the 2018 season after Mike Matheny was fired, so that season does not count when considering this achievement. Neither does the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Here is Shildt’s record by year:

Big D

The Padres hit three home runs and got another big game from Jackson Merrill at the plate last night.

Martín Pérez allowed a run in 5⅓ innings. Tanner Scott got the final five outs.

The defense arguably made the win possible.

Third baseman Manny Machado made a magnificent backhand play up the line and threw across the diamond for the first out of the game. With one on and one away in the second, shortstop Xander Bogaerts made a diving stop and threw to first for the out. He also charged up to make a backhand grab on the grass and throw out the runner at first for the first out of the eighth inning and was part of the double play started by second baseman Jake Cronenworth to end that inning. Also in the eighth, catcher Elías Díaz made three excellent blocks on pitches in the dirt to keep runners at first and second.

And there was this play from Profar in left field to end the seventh.

Oh, wow 😮 #Profar’s diving catch !! 😄👍🏻(Korean broadcast) pic.twitter.com/THk3h1kyeU

— Joseph Kim (@blackwings2011) September 22, 2024

Closer & Closer

Robert Suarez threw 27 pitches while blowing a save on Friday in his fourth appearance in six days. So regardless of whether he struggled Friday, he was going to be available only in an emergency last night.

He was warming up at game’s end.

After taking two pitches to get the final two outs in the eighth inning in relief of Jason Adam, Scott ran into some trouble in the ninth when he surrendered a two-out single and walked a batter.

Just as Suarez began to throw in earnest in the bullpen, however, Scott ended the game with his third strikeout of the inning.

Tidbits

• Merrill was 2-for-3 with a walk, a run and an RBI. He is batting .433 (13-for-30) with six doubles, a home run and three walks over his past eight games.
• Merrill’s .952 OPS since June 8 is second in the National League to Shohei Ohtani’s 1.055 in that span, and Merrill’s .311 batting average leads the NL in that time. For the season, Merrill is batting .294 with an .833 OPS. Since 1961, just 24 rookies who had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title have finished with a higher batting average and OPS.
• Díaz’s two-run homer in the eighth inning was his first with the Padres. He also singled and is now 3-for-16 with the team.
• Peralta’s solo homer in the fourth inning was his eighth home run in 221 at-bats this season. He had seven home runs in 394 at-bats with the Dodgers last season.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. doubled twice last night and is batting .349 (15-for-43) with five home runs and four doubles during a 10-game hitting streak.
• The Padres announced last night’s crowd at 45,360, bringing the two-day total against the White Sox to 91,150. The expectation is that today’s crowd will enable the team to break the attendance record for a three-game series (134,081) set earlier this season against the Yankees. The Padres will also set a new season attendance record today, surpassing last year’s total of 3.23 million.

All right, that’s it for me.

Early game (1:10 p.m. PT) today and potentially a long day ahead. If the Braves lose and Padres win, the Padres will have to wait around to see if they have clinched a playoff spot, because the Mets-Phillies game does not start until 4:15 p.m. PT.

Talk to you tomorrow.