Good morning from Los Angeles,

The potential for craziness was heightened yesterday.

The Padres losing to the Dodgers was the final piece in a series of events that kept things up in the air in the National League wild-card race.

A 4-3 loss to the Ohtani-powered Dodgers sent the Padre  from in control of their own destiny to life support when it comes to the National League West race.

There remain two scenarios in which the Padres win the division, and neither is all that likely. Both require the Padres to win tonight’s series finale here.

The Padres can still win the West if they win tonight and:

They sweep the Diamondbacks while the Dodgers lose at least two of three to the Rockies in Colorado.

                                                        -or-

They take two of three in Arizona while the Dodgers get swept by the Rockies.

Yeah.

So let’s focus on what has been most likely all along.

The Padres are still in excellent position in the quest to clinch the NL’s top wild-card spot and the home series that comes with it.

One more victory means the Diamondbacks cannot overtake the Padres. Two more victories (or a victory and a Mets loss or two Mets losses) means the Mets cannot overtake them.

But if those things don’t happen, it gets tricky.

The Mets did not play yesterday and won’t play today, as the two remaining games in their series against the Braves in Atlanta were postponed until Monday due to the extended effects of Hurricane Helene.

The Monday doubleheader will only be played if they have playoff implications.

What exactly playoff implications means is not certain.

An inquiry to MLB about whether the games would be played if the three wild-card teams had been decided but seeding could still be affected by the outcome of the Braves and Mets playing the final two games drew this reply:

“The doubleheader is slated for Monday, and it will be a determination by the Commissioner’s Office if there are circumstances under which we would not play as scheduled.”

There is a decent chance the Padres and/or Diamondbacks are in limbo after their series. One or both could waiting until late Monday afternoon to find out where they are playing Tuesday and/or who their opponent will be. (The Diamondbacks could be waiting to see if they are even in the playoffs.)

I’m not going to get deep into the potential scenarios, because I would probably end up leaving something really obvious out.

Suffice it to say that it remains possible the Padres are the No.6 seed and are playing their wild-card series in Milwaukee or are the No.5 seed and are playing in Arizona or New York come Tuesday.

Most likely, the Padres will head home Sunday night to await the Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves.

The best-case scenario for the Padres is that they have clinched that home series and are watching the Mets and Braves deplete their pitching staffs on Monday.

Doing it right

I wrote in my game story (here) about how the Padres’ loss went down and how it had nothing to do with their having celebrated clinching a playoff spot Tuesday.

I received a number of emails from readers and heard a few media lamentations about this, as if the Padres drank copious amounts of alcohol and partied until dawn.

They did not. At least there was no evidence they did.

Asking questions about their celebration plans was valid. (That’s why I did so.)

But what if they had not celebrated their achievement? What would they do now that the division is all but out of reach? The time to celebrate has passed.

If you missed Joe Musgrove’s explanation on why the Padres celebrated, you can read what I wrote about that (here). Not in that story was the explanation by Musgrove of how the celebrations serve a purpose that is more than a look back.

“Part of it is bonding,” he said. “That’s where guys grow that fire and that intensity to keep going and do it again. Each celebration gets better and better and better.”

Disneyland has nothing on a clinching celebration. It is the happiest place on earth in that moment for those participating. Some describe it as just behind the birth of a child or a wedding day.

There is a lot of failing and a lot of losing in baseball. So winning brings them together, and celebrating clinching a playoff spot or a playoff series does cultivate closeness among those who participate, because they have all earned the right to let loose like that together.

Who is it?

Dylan Cease’s final start of the regular season did nothing to clear up one of the Padres’ big questions:

What does their rotation look like for a wild-card series?

They have four candidates for a maximum of three starts.

Cease, who allowed three runs while battling through five innings last night, has to be one of those starters. So does Joe Musgrove. So does Michael King (provided he does not have to pitch Sunday’s season finale).

But do you really leave Yu Darvish out? And in which order do they pitch?

It is an enviable problem. But there is still an important decision to be made.

Tell me what would you do.

Not all good

Mostly excellent pitching has masked some of the Padres’ offensive struggles of late, as their staff posted an MLB-best 1.43 ERA and the Padres won nine of their 11 games going into last night.

But last night’s four-hit effort was the fifth time in the past 12 games the Padres have had six hits or less. They are batting .255 and have a .309 on-base percentage and are scoring 4.1 runs per game over the 12 games.

The Padres had six or fewer hits in just five of their previous 34 games, a stretch in which they batted .272/.343 and scored 5.3 runs per game.

The Padres were batting .277 with runners in scoring position before this 12-game stretch. They are batting .227 during the 12 games.

Some individual struggles do not seem like good trends considering what is upcoming for the Padres.

• Luis Arraez has two hits in his past 24 at-bats.
• Manny Machado was 1-for-11 against the White Sox and is 1-for-6 with two walks against the Dodgers. That’s a total of 2-for-17 over the past five games. He has struck out at least once in 10 straight games.
• Donovan Solano has four hits in his past 30 at-bats.
• Catchers Kyle Higashioka and Elías Díaz are a combined 7-for-49 (.143) since Sept. 4.

Gotta know when to hold ‘em

Wandy Peralta pitched yesterday for the first time since Sept. 11.

I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter why the Padres had essentially limited their bullpen usage to five relievers. The biggest factor is that they have been in a lot of close games.

And while yesterday was another one — the seventh time in the past nine games they have been up or down by two or fewer runs — Mike Shildt could not afford to put one of his top three high-leverage relievers in a game in which the Padres trailed.

Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez had all pitched on six of the previous 10 days. And with four days of potentially big games upcoming, Shildt had to rely on someone else last night.

With the Padres down 4-3, Peralta replaced Bryan Hoeing with one out and a runner on first base in the eighth inning and got Kiké Hernández to ground into a double play.

Tidbits

• Fernando Tatis Jr.’s game-tying home run in the fifth inning traveled a projected 448 feet, the longest home run hit by a Padres player this season. Tatis has five of the Padres seven longest homers this season.
• Tatis also doubled last night and has 12 extra-base hits (seven homers, five doubles) in his past 54 at-bats.
• Jake Cronenworth was 0-for-2 with two walks last night. Over his past 36 starts, Cronenworth is batting .228 with a .359 OBP. It is the third-largest disparity between the two numbers in the major leagues in that span (since Aug. 14) behind the Yankees duo of Aaron Judge (.300/.438) and  Juan Soto (.227/.366).
• Brandon Lockridge has likely cemented his spot on the postseason roster as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He stole his second base in two tries last night.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.