NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasters have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

The August 10th prediction reflects the current ocean and atmospheric conditions, including the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Even with the active El Nino, which tends to suppress tropical development in the Atlantic, the above-average water temperatures are expected to counteract it.

The newest NOAA outlook predicts 14-21 named storms (39 MPH winds or higher), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes, and 2-5 are predicted to become major hurricanes (111 MPH winds or higher). This range also includes named storms that have already formed this season.

NOAA forecasters updated this range with 70% confidence. The previous outlook, which was released just prior to the start of the season, predicted a near-normal season with 12-17 named storms.