“It is likely that the damage to both the gas pipe and the communication cable is the result of external activity,” President Sauli Niinisto of Finland said in a statement. “The cause of the damage is not yet clear, the investigation continues in cooperation between Finland and Estonia.”
European countries have been especially sensitive to the possibility of sabotage since the explosions that blew up the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany just over a year ago.
But in contrast to that incident, when seismologists registered two distinct blasts, scientists have not measured any unusual activity in the vicinity of the Finnish pipeline.
“We have not detected any signals of an explosion,” Timo Tiira, research director at the University of Helsinki’s Institute of Seismology, wrote in an email.
“We are still looking for that,” Tiira continued, but “if there was an explosion, it must have been close to threshold for detection or below it.”
Also different from the Nord Stream episode — when European officials were quick to blame Russia, only to see some of their initial theories fall apart — officials are being cautious about assigning blame.
Finnish officials played down the impact on Europe’s natural gas supplies, though the Ministry of Economic Affairs warned that repairs would take months and gas prices could increase this winter.
Niinisto said his country, which recently joined NATO, was in “constant contact with our allies and partners.”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed he had been in touch with Finland’s president. “NATO is sharing information & stands ready to support Allies concerned,” Stoltenberg wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Sweden, too, offered its help. Sweden “stands with our Nordic-Baltic colleagues,” Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom wrote on X.
Henri Vanhanen, a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said the situation was serious.
“We’re talking about critical infrastructure of two NATO countries,” he said. “This is a test to the alliance — how will it react if indeed evidence of, for example, Russian interference, is detected.”
This year, NATO announced the creation of a critical undersea infrastructure coordination cell at NATO headquarters. The alliance and the European Union also set up a joint task force to protect critical infrastructure.
“NATO is stepping up to enhance the security of critical undersea infrastructure,” a statement from NATO headquarters in Brussels said Tuesday.
“We have increased naval patrols in the North Sea since the Nord Stream sabotage, and are focusing on technological innovation — including with drones to better detect suspicious activity near underwater cables,” the statement continued.
Details about what happened to the pipeline and communications cable last weekend are still emerging.
Gasgrid Finland and Elering, respectively the Finnish and Estonian gas system operators, announced the unusual drop in pipeline pressure Sunday. The relevant section of pipeline was identified, valves were shut, and the leak was contained, according to Gasgrid. At the time, gas had been flowing from Finland toward Latvia, according to Elering.
The Balticconnector pipeline stretches nearly 50 miles across the Baltic Sea between Inga, Finland, and Paldiski, Estonia. Up and running since 2020, it was built to end Finland’s “gas isolation” by connecting it with the rest of Europe, according to the European Union, which helped fund the project.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement Tuesday that she would “strongly condemn any act of deliberate destruction of critical infrastructure. Our pipelines and underwater cables connect citizens and companies across Europe and to the rest of the world. They are lifelines of financial markets and global trade.”
This pipeline, though, is not critical to Finland’s energy supply, officials asserted Tuesday, because gas accounts for a relatively small percentage of the country’s energy mix. In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Finland opened a floating LNG terminal near Inga.
In a news release Tuesday, Gasgrid said it had started its investigation into what happened and how long it might take to repair the damage.
The mystery of what happened to the Nord Stream pipelines, despite investigations, remains unresolved.