As college football’s regular season reaches its traditional midpoint, it’s easy to look forward to what the playoff and bowl picture might look like.
For the Gophers, reaching a bowl for the fifth time in coach P.J. Fleck’s seven years at Minnesota is no foregone conclusion. They’re 3-3 entering Saturday’s game at No. 24 Iowa and are coming off a 42-point loss to No. 2 Michigan.
They also own an overtime loss at Northwestern in which they frittered away a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. They need three more victories to gain bowl eligibility, leaving them much work to do to earn an extra game at a possibly-warm destination.
There are several questions that will be answered between Saturday and the Nov. 25 finale vs. Wisconsin. Here are a handful:
Will the Gophers make a bowl game?
That’s a definite maybe. After playing Iowa, the Gophers are host to Michigan State (2-4) and Illinois (3-4), travel to Purdue (2-5) and No. 3 Ohio State (6-0), and finish at home against Wisconsin (4-2). Win three, and they’re bowling. Win four or more, and they’ll improve their destination.
Which bowls are the Gophers’ most likely destinations?
After the College Football Playoff (Rose and Sugar) and selection committee bowls (Fiesta, Orange, Peach and Cotton), the Big Ten has affiliations this year with the Citrus, ReliaQuest, Music City, Las Vegas, Pinstripe, Guaranteed Rate and Quick Lane bowls. At least one of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State appears in line to make the playoff with the other two in selection committee bowls.
For the Gophers, their destination depends on how many games they win, but for now I’ll rule out the Citrus (Orlando) and ReliaQuest (Tampa) bowls. Because the Gophers played in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl in 2021 and the Pinstripe Bowl last year, they are unlikely to return to Phoenix or New York. More likely would be the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 23, the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville or the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 26 in Detroit.
Wisconsin played in the Las Vegas Bowl in 2021, the first year of its every-other-year affiliation with the Big Ten. Presumably, the Badgers won’t be a repeat selection.
Minnesota was a Music City regular in the early 2000s, appearing three times in a four-year span, but the Gophers haven’t been to Nashville since 2005. Iowa was there last year, so rule out the Hawkeyes. Other contenders are Maryland, Wisconsin and Nebraska.
The Gophers won’t have to return to Detroit, will they?
It’s possible because 6-6 teams are beggars, not choosers. Reaching seven or more wins decreases that possibility. What’s also working in the Gophers’ favor in avoiding Detroit is the fact that they are the only Big Ten team to have played in that bowl twice, in 2015 and ’18. In addition, they are the last Big Ten team to play in the Quick Lane.
Is there a potential surprise destination for the Gophers?
Yes, and it might be the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 in Fort Worth, Texas. This bowl is not part of the Big Ten’s tie-in group, but there’s a chance it would need a replacement team. If the Big Ten sends 10 or more teams to bowls, Fort Worth could come into play for a 6-6 team. Put it this way: If the Gophers’ options were Detroit in late December for the third time in nine years, or Fort Worth, which would you prefer?
Could the Gophers reach a bowl with a 5-7 record?
The short answer is a complicated yes, but for brevity’s sake, let’s cross that bridge if or when it’s closer.
Here are my midseason bowl projections for Big Ten teams:
Rose (Jan. 1, Pasadena, Calif.; playoff semifinal): Michigan vs. Washington
Orange (Dec. 30, Miami): Penn State vs. North Carolina
Cotton (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas): Ohio State vs. Texas
Citrus (Jan. 1, Orlando): Iowa vs. Ole Miss
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1, Tampa): ACC takes spot if Big Ten has team in Orange Bowl.
Music City (Dec. 30, Nashville): Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Gophers vs. Utah
Pinstripe (Dec. 28, New York): Rutgers vs. North Carolina State
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26, Phoenix): Nebraska vs. Kansas
Quick Lane (Dec. 26, Detroit): Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio)