The upcoming hurricane season in the central Pacific region could be “slightly busier this year, compared to a normal year,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, in a statement issued Thursday.
The state of Hawaii falls within this region, and local officials are calling on people to be prepared.
“It only takes one storm to affect your life, your family and your community,” Gov. Josh Green said in a special May 21 proclamation, calling on Hawaii residents to develop emergency plans and have at least two weeks of supplies on hand.
The NOAA’s forecast for the 2023 hurricane season signals a potential shift away from last year’s subdued season. In 2022, only one tropical cyclone developed in the central Pacific. This year, the NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center are predicting the central Pacific could see four to seven tropical cyclones, which include everything from tropical depressions to hurricanes, Chris Brenchley, director of the hurricane center, said in a news conference on Thursday. (Note: The center does not forecast how many hurricanes specifically could impact Hawaii.)
“The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down. Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years,” Brenchley said in a statement. “It’s more important than ever to review your emergency plan and supply kit now, so you will be prepared for the next hurricane threat.”
Hurricane season in the central Pacific, which comprises the area north of the equator falling between the 140th meridian west and the international date line, runs June 1 through Nov. 30. Forecasts from the NOAA reveal a 50% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity this season, a 35% chance of near-normal activity and a 15% chance of below-normal activity.
“As we’ve been reminded in seasons past, and also recently with the typhoon in Guam, it only takes impact from one, and so with an increase in activity in the [Hawaii] basin, there’s obviously going to be the potential for more threats to land,” Brenchley said.
The forecast comes as there’s a high probability El Niño conditions could develop this summer. El Niño occurs when equatorial waters warm up to above-average temperatures and can impact weather patterns around the world.
“We’re looking at El Niño conditions developing across the Pacific hurricane season. You can see that it’s already getting warmer across the equator. We see a lot of consensus in the modeling that show us heading rapidly toward El Niño conditions,” Brenchley said at the press conference. “Typically, the conditions are correlated with higher-than-average tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific.”