A new poll shows Mayor Todd Gloria’s lead over re-election challenger Larry Turner has narrowed significantly since July, dropping from 13 points to 4 points as Turner has become more familiar to many likely voters.
The poll, conducted last week by SurveyUSA for The San Diego Union-Tribune and 10 News, also shows strong support for the city’s recent ban on homeless encampments and the mayor’s proposal for a nearly 1,000-bed shelter near the airport.
The poll surveyed 668 registered voters last Wednesday through Sunday over landlines, smartphones, tablets and other electronic devices. It has a credibility interval of 4.9 percentage points.
Gloria’s lead over Turner, which was 36 percent to 23 percent in a similar poll conducted in mid-July, is now 37 percent to 33 percent just seven weeks before Election Day on Nov. 5.
But the two polls have both found large shares of voters still undecided. In July, 36 percent said they were undecided, and 5 percent said they didn’t plan to vote. Last week, 28 percent said they are undecided, and 3 percent had no plans to vote.
The city’s current ban on homeless encampments was supported by 61 percent of those surveyed and opposed by 27 percent. The mayor’s proposal for a shelter at Kettner Boulevard and Vine Street — a plan that has drawn scrutiny from budget analysts, the city attorney and council members — was supported by 71 percent of respondents and opposed by 21 percent.
The poll found that the top two issues for voters remain the cost of living, which was listed as the top issue by 52 percent of respondents, and homelessness, which was listed first by 27 percent.
Voters are also frustrated with the quality of the city’s roads and sidewalks, with 76 percent of those surveyed saying San Diego needs to focus more on fixing them and just 21 percent saying the city is doing enough.
The rise in support for Turner comes as voters have become more familiar with the former police officer and registered independent.
In July, 30 percent of voters said they were not at all familiar with Turner, while another 34 percent said they weren’t very familiar with him. By last week, the share of those not at all familiar with him had dropped to 23 percent, and those not very familiar had dropped to 31 percent.
“Our campaign has gained tremendous momentum as more voters learn about my vision for San Diego,” Turner said in a news release about the new poll. “It’s evident that residents are dissatisfied with the direction the city has been heading under Mayor Gloria. People are tired of empty promises and want a mayor who will deliver real results.”
Gloria’s campaign manager, Jen Tierney, expressed skepticism about the new poll based on a similar poll in 2020 also conducted by SurveyUSA.
“In September 2020, Survey USA showed Todd losing the mayor’s race by three points, a race he ultimately won by 12,” she said, referring to Gloria’s 2020 runoff victory over opponent Barbara Bry. “I have a lot more faith in our own polling, which shows Todd with a comfortable lead. Regardless, Todd wins by working like he’s behind no matter what the polling says, and that’s how he will win another four years as mayor.”
Gloria, a Democrat, holds large leads among voters who describe themselves as liberal, those who voted for President Biden in 2020 and fellow Democrats.
He holds smaller leads among voters who say homelessness is the most important issue facing the city, those who rent their homes and those with low household incomes.
Gloria also has strong support among 35- to 49-year-olds, Latinos, parents of children under age 18 and those who have attended some college.
Turner has significant leads among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, conservative voters, Republicans, middle-income voters and those who voted to re-elect Donald Trump in 2020.
Dissatisfaction may be helping Turner in the race.
Of those surveyed, 49 percent say life in San Diego has gotten worse in the past few years, and more of those voters support Turner than Gloria.
Those voting for Turner are particularly pessimistic, with 68 percent saying life in San Diego has gotten worse, 12 percent saying life is getting better and 17 percent saying it’s about the same as it was.
Those voting for Gloria are more divided on this question, with 25 percent saying life is getting better, 23 percent saying it’s getting worse and 48 percent saying it’s stayed about the same.
Originally Published: