Gophers at Iowa

• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

• TV/Radio: NBC, 100.3-FM

• Line: Iowa by 3½

The Gophers (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) return to action after their bye week, facing the Hawkeyes (6-1, 3-1) in Iowa City, where Minnesota hasn’t won since 1999. The Floyd of Rosedale trophy is at stake, as is a chance for the Gophers to turn their season in the right direction.

Three big story lines

Can P.J. Fleck finally beat Kirk Ferentz? Coach P.J. Fleck has closed the gap between the Gophers and Wisconsin by winning two straight and three of five vs. the Badgers. But he’s 0-6 against Iowa and coach Kirk Ferentz, with losses in 2019 and 2021 costing the Gophers a spot in the Big Ten title game.

How healthy will the Gophers be? The bye week came at a perfect time for two key Gophers: leading rusher Darius Taylor and standout linebacker Cody Lindenberg. Both have leg injuries, and Fleck said they’re getting closer to returning. Their status won’t be known until the Big Ten releases the availability report.

Will the Gophers trust their passing game? The Gophers have been ultraconservative in their past two games against Iowa, rushing a combined 100 times for 501 yards while throwing 48 passes. Though they controlled both games territorially, they still suffered 13-10 and 27-22 defeats. Time to take a bolder approach.

Two key matchups

Gophers DC Joe Rossi vs. Iowa OC Brian Ferentz

Joe Rossi is considered one of the top defensive coordinators in college football, yet he has been on the wrong end of the score against the embattled Ferentz, whose offense ranks last in FBS in total yards. Quick starts and explosive plays have swung momentum Ferentz’s way the past two years.

Gophers special teams coordinator Rob Wenger vs. Iowa punter Tory Taylor

The Hawkeyes use Taylor as a weapon, and the Australian punter averages 48.3 yards per punt and has a net average of 44.5 yards with 17 punts inside the opponent’s 20 vs. one touchback. Wenger will need his punt return team to be especially sharp in key moments.

One stat that matters

20-for-21

Iowa’s red-zone scoring performance vs. the Gophers during the Fleck era. Minnesota is 15-for-22 in that span.

The Gophers will win if … they control the ball with Darius Taylor and Zach Evans and take an early lead; they find productivity in the passing game; they win the turnover battle; and their defense shuts down Iowa’s running game, forcing backup QB Deacon Hill to beat them.

The Hawkeyes will win if … They score first and put the pressure on the Gophers; they get production from RBs Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson; they overcome the losses of tight ends Erick All and Luke Lachey with help from wideout Nico Ragaini; their defense pressures Gophers QB Athan Kaliakmanis; and punter Tory Taylor consistently flips the field.

Prediction

Although the Gophers haven’t been impressive this season, they have a great opportunity Saturday — maybe their best under Fleck — to right some wrongs. Iowa will be without its top quarterback and two top pass-catchers at tight end, making the Hawkeyes even more one-dimensional on offense. If Kaliakmanis can keep the Iowa defense honest by being a legitimate threat to pass, then Taylor and Evans could have solid games. The Gophers defense must start fast and eliminate the big plays Iowa has used to eke out victories the past two years. Also, keeping punt return ace Cooper DeJean in check would do wonders.

My expectation: It will be another tight game between the Gophers and Hawkeyes. This time, Floyd travels north.

Gophers 17, Iowa 16