The Miami Heat clash with Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in an NBA play-in game on Wednesday night (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) to decide which team will move on to the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Awaiting the winner of this matchup is the red-hot New York Knicks, who slipped into the No. 2 playoff seed on the final day of the regular season..
A meniscus surgery sidelined Embiid for a good part of the 2023-24 regular season, but he is expected to play in what will be his sixth game back from injury.
However, Embiid has historically been less of a threat in the postseason than during the regular season. He still has much to prove in the playoffs, but winning this matchup against Bam Adebayo, one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA, would go a long way.
Can the Heat make another miraculous run from the Play-In Tournament to the NBA Finals, or will the reigning MVP propel the Sixers to the first round of the playoffs?
Let’s analyze this Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament matchup and make a Heat vs. 76ers prediction.
Heat vs. 76ers odds
- Spread: Heat +5.5 (-112), 76ers -5.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Heat +180, 76ers -215
- Total: Over 208 (-110), Under 208 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel
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Heat vs. 76ers prediction
The difference in play from the Sixers this season with and without Embiid on the floor is drastic, to say the least.
Philadelphia holds an elite 31-8 record when Embiid is on the floor; however, the Sixers only won 16 of their 43 games when he was sidelined.
The stats tell a similar story: the Sixers score 11.6 more points per game with him on a solid 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.3% from behind the arc.
Additionally, Philly’s net rating with Embiid is +10.5, which would have ranked it second in the NBA behind only the Boston Celtics (+11.7) if maintained throughout the entire 2023-24 campaign.
However, if there were any player who could mitigate Embiid’s offensive impact, it would be Miami’s center, Bam Adebayo.
Adebayo has had plenty of postseason success against Embiid, holding him to merely 19.3 points, 10rebounds and 1.9 assists per game on 42.3% shooting from the floor and 30% from deep.
On a separate note, Terry Rozier will miss this matchup, but interestingly, the Heat have a 15-16 record with their point guard in the lineup and a 31-20 record without him.
Miami has enough guard and wing depth and experience to manage during Rozier’s absence, including Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Delon Wright, Patty Mills, Caleb Martin and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Sure, Philly has rattled off eight consecutive wins, but 5.5 points is a lot to lay in an Play-In Tournament game against a Heat team that has made the NBA Finals in two of the past four seasons and typically excels in the postseason.
Miami also has a better road record (24-17) than home record (22-19) this season, deterring us from weighing Philly’s homecourt advantage too heavily.
I’ll roll with Miami at +5.5 in this one.
Pick: Heat +5.5 (-110, bet365)