The defending champion Texas Rangers (that felt odd to type) open the 2024 season at home against the Chicago Cubs.

I’m a big fan of Cubs starter Justin Steele and think new manager Craig Counsell will fare well in Chicago, but at -115, I’m backing Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers on Thursday night.

And here’s why.

Cubs vs. Rangers odds

• Runline: Cubs +1.5 (+163), Rangers -1.5 (-215)
• Total: Over 8 (-115), Under 8 (-105)
• Moneyline: Cubs +100, Rangers -115

Odds via BetRivers

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Cubs vs. Rangers analysis

The Rangers will celebrate last season’s title with a pregame ceremony that should give the already electric Opening Day crowd an added boost.

With a lot of emotion and adrenaline in Texas for this game, the Rangers have the advantage of rolling with a veteran starter who has two World Series starts and has previously pitched on Opening Day.

This will be Eovaldi’s fourth Opening Day start (the first three were with Boston), so he knows what he’s getting into and how to navigate the emotions.

That will be key for the first couple of innings for the Texas native, who went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA last season.

The Rangers also bring back the bulk of an offense that led the American League with an average of 5.46 runs per game last season and is more than capable of putting up some crooked numbers against Steele, who will be making his first Opening Day start.

Backing a pitcher making his Opening Day starting debut, on the road, in front of fans who just celebrated their team’s championship in a pregame ceremony gives me a bit of trepidation.

Steele, who went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 176 strikeouts over 173 1/3 innings last season, should have another strong year, but this is not the best spot to back him.

Cubs vs. Rangers pick

The Rangers are at home and have the better lineup in this game.

The starting pitching matchup is close, but the veteran presence that Eovaldi provides gives Texas the edge.

While backing Steele and the Cubs at plus money is tempting, I can’t get there as the Rangers have multiple edges in this game.

Bet the Rangers on the moneyline.

• Pick: Rangers ML -115 (BetMGM)