The fair value for European Central Bank interest rate cuts in 2024 is around 70 basis points, less than the market pricing of almost 100 basis points, says Piet Haines Christiansen, who watches the ECB for Danske Bank Research. “I have my first cut penciled in for June,” he writes in a note. Money market forwards price in 20 bps of rate cuts in April and a cumulative 36 bps by June, according to Refinitiv data. Real wage growth of more than 5% is a very important reason why Christiansen doesn’t think that the economy is about to collapse, writing that if employees aren’t worried about getting fired, they will continue to consume and not cut back on spending.