Russian adventurism is a drain on U.S. resources. By decimating the Russian military threat, Ukraine is reducing the amount of money the United States will have to spend defending Europe — without risking American lives to do it.
Russia might never regain the strength it has spent against Ukraine. Its military has suffered more combat deaths in Ukraine than in all of its wars since World War II — combined. Russia has lost about 2,000 tanks — more than half its operational fleet — plus thousands of other pieces of military equipment, including combat aircraft, combat vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, radar and antiaircraft systems, and at least 18 Navy ships. The British defense ministry estimates that 97 percent of the Russian army is now committed to Ukraine. For every Russian tank, plane and infantry division the Ukrainians eliminate, the United States will have to spend that much less to deter Russian aggression in the decades to come.
The impact will go beyond Europe. During the Obama administration, Russia intervened militarily in Syria on behalf of Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Today, the war in Ukraine has flipped the script: Russia has been forced to reduce its presence in Syria and redeploy critical military hardware to Ukraine. And instead of Russia helping Iran, Iran is now shoring up Russia with weapons, including military drones.
Vanquishing Russia in Ukraine will produce a Russian “defeat dividend,” allowing the United States to redeploy resources from Europe to the Pacific theater to counter China. A Ukrainian victory will also create conditions of peace and stability in Europe that will expand trade and investment with our largest trading partners. Over time, it will allow the United States to supplant Russia as the primary energy supplier to Europe. The financial benefits to Americans will be enormous.
On the other hand, for the United States, the costs of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be astronomical. “After absorbing Ukraine, Putin would likely absorb Belarus in a Russia-Ukraine-Belarus confederation,” former national security advisor Stephen Hadley tells me. This new Russian empire would threaten the borders of Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Putin would likely move against Moldova, the Baltic states, and maybe even Poland, Hadley says, perhaps setting his sights on establishing a land bridge across NATO territory to the isolated Russian Baltic region of Kaliningrad. The Black Sea would essentially become a Russian lake, allowing Putin to threaten southern Europe.
This new map would require the deployment of more U.S. troops to Europe, and massive increases in overall U.S. defense spending — because the United States would now have to defend Europe from a growing Russian threat while also preparing to defend its partners, allies and its own territory in the Pacific from Chinese aggression. In other words, arming Ukraine is a bargain compared with the alternative.