In the last two elections, the number of eligible Asian American and Latino voters in California increased while the amount of eligible White voters throughout the state decreased.

But despite the increase in those eligible minority voters, they remain underrepresented at the ballot box.

According to new research from the University of Southern California’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, more than four in 10 Asian American and Latino eligible voters in the state — approximately 5.4 million people — did not vote in the 2020 general election. In 2022, that number went up to six in 10, meaning that around 8.6 million eligible Asian American and Latino voters did not cast a ballot.

And in 2022, the difference between Latino voters who cast a ballot and the California electorate was nearly 17 percentage points; it was around 7.7 percentage points for Asian American voters.

That trend has played out in four of the most populous counties in the state: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino. While all four counties saw an increase in their share of Asian American and Latino eligible voter populations, turnout among them was lower than total participation across the state in both 2020 and 2022. Eligible voter populations is defined as U.S. residents who are at least 18 years old and eligible to vote, including those who might not be registered voters.

USC’s study suggests that higher voter participation from these two groups could transform election results in November.

“Less than half of the state’s voting population decided the fate of candidates and ballot propositions in 2022,” said Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy and the study’s lead author. “If we could get even a small percentage uptick in mobilizing more Latinos and Asian Americans to the polls this November, their participation could be a difference maker in key races and mean greater representation for both communities.”

2020 election

In 2020, around 66.8% of California’s eligible voters participated in the general election, according to USC’s study.

While turnout in Orange County was higher at nearly 72%, the amount of Asian American eligible voters who participated was lower at 65.5%. Even fewer Latino eligible voters, 55.2%, cast a ballot in Orange County that year.

In Los Angeles County, turnout among both Asian American and Latino eligible voters was lower than the statewide statistics: 56.1% among Asian Americans and 59.4% among Latinos.

And in the Inland Empire, turnout among these eligible minority voters dipped even more. In San Bernardino County, just over half (51.7%) of Asian American eligible voters turned out and less than half (48.9%) of Latino eligible voters cast a ballot. It was lower in Riverside County, with 46.7% and 48.4%, respectively.

2022 election

Overall turnout was lower in 2022 across the state and for every county, said Romero. In 2022, only about 43% of the state’s voters cast a ballot, the study found.

The four Southern California counties also saw lower turnout, including in their Asian American and Latino voter populations.

In Orange County, about 47% of eligible voters cast ballots in 2022, higher than the state’s turnout. However, turnout among Asian American eligible voters was considerably less at 40.1% and 26.8% among Latino eligible voters.

In Los Angeles County, turnout in 2022 among Asian American eligible voters was at 32.3% and lower among Latino eligible voters at 27.7%. In San Bernardino County, it was 27.2% and 22% turnout among Asian American and Latino eligible voters, respectively, and in Riverside County, 25.8% and 22.4%.

While the drop cannot be chalked up to any single factor, Romero said the lower turnout matched the decline seen across the board in the rest of the U.S. After all, 2020 was a presidential year and 2022 midterms. Romero said turnout is always higher in presidential years due to the “consequential nature of the presidential race.”

But Orange County was also the only one in Southern California — and one of 17 in the state — that had an Asian American eligible voter turnout rate over 40% in the 2022 general election.

“I think most people are aware that Orange County is not only a very competitive county with competitive congressional districts but there’s also a lot of mobilization of the Asian American vote,” Romero said.

In Orange County — home to two officially recognized Koreatowns in the state and Little Saigon, where the largest Vietnamese community outside of Vietnam resides — Democrats and Republicans have invested in mobilizing Asian American voters in particular. And in this cycle, leaders of the four largest Asian American organizations in the county launched the OC Asian American Initiative to expand accessibility to voting materials in various languages and increase turnout in November.

Across Southern California, multiple congressional races are being closely watched by national Democrats and Republicans, including in California’s 45th and 47th districts in Orange County, the 27th district in Los Angeles County and the 41st district in Riverside County.

Of the four Southern California counties (Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino), Orange County has the highest share of Asian American eligible voters, 21.6%, compared to 15.1% in Los Angeles, 7.3% in San Bernardino and 6.6% in Riverside. Two of the six congressional districts that touch Orange County are represented by Asian Americans and another Asian American is vying for an open seat in the county.

On the other hand, San Bernardino has the highest share of Latino eligible voters, 49.9%, compared to 44.4% in Riverside County, 42.5% in Los Angeles and 27.5% in Orange, according to USC’s study.

The report did not include data for Black voters due to difficulty in reliably identifying those voters at the county level. Black people make up only about 5% of California’s population.