Good morning,

So much to talk about.

The Padres’ victory in Game 3 of the National League Division Series, which has them one win away from sending the Dodgers slinking back up Interstate 5 to face an extended offseason, was a manifestation of what the Padres have become.

A collection of guys who get wins done in different ways seemingly every night. Or at least close to it.

There was Fernando Tatis Jr., whose two-run home run capped a six-run sixth inning.

There was Manny Machado, whose baserunning made that second inning possible.

There were relievers Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez, who covered the final four innings without allowing a run.

“No matter what the situation (is) that goes down, don’t worry, we’ve got your back,” said David Peralta, whose double drove in two runs in the second inning. “That’s what we do. We did it today. … We’re good — offense, defense, pitching, starting, relievers. That’s what it’s all about. We come and shut the teams down. The Dodgers have a pretty good lineup, and we just shut it down. That’s what it’s all about. It’s not just about one person. … We’re all together in this, and that’s what we’re doing. We’ve been doing this the whole year, and we’re just going to keep doing it. And the best part is we get better every day.”

You can read in my game story (here) about what happened in the Padres’ 6-5 victory and how last night’s game quickly turned the focus from the past to the present, as Game 3 was unhinged pretty much from the start.

Bryce Miller wrote a column (here) on the topic, saying it was good to be treated to a fine baseball game after the 24 hours leading up to the game had been all about what Manny Machado did or did not do in Game 2.

Before we move on — and before we touch on all the above-named heroes and more — let’s briefly discuss one of the big talking points from before yesterday’s game.

That would be a column written by Ken Rosenthal for The Athletic, which is one of his employers. (The other employer is Fox, for which he does sideline reporting in the regular season and during the postseason.) In the column, he used the word “punkish” to describe Machado’s actions and referred to Tatis as a “smiling, dancing peacock.”

The Padres, suffice it to say, were not pleased with Rosenthal’s brand of journalism. The team did not conduct the usual in-game interviews with him on Fox last night. It was a one-game boycott, and those interviews are expected to resume tonight.

Tatis posted a photo of himself celebrating during the game on Instagram after the game with two emojis: a peacock and a man dancing.

Before yesterday’s game, Mike Shildt addressed Dodgers manager Dave Roberts’ comments on Machado, and I wrote about that (here).

“The what? You mean the W tonight?” Machado said when asked about the drama. “I mean, it feels great to win. You know, we got one more left, and looking forward to going out there and battling tomorrow. It’s a grind. Baseball’s a grind. So we grinded 27 outs tonight, and it was a hell of a place to play in front of this crowd. This crowd was rocking tonight, and well deserved for the city of San Diego.”

Throughout the clubhouse, the Padres mostly declined to comment on the hubbub.

“I don’t think we should waste our energy on much of that,” Xander Bogaerts said. “Listen, we have something special going on here, and the more we can block out those noises from the outside, I mean, the better it’s gonna be for us. I think that’s the way we should continue approaching it. … We can’t control what people put out there. We can’t control what people think of us. But, as I said, we have something really special going on here, and the more positive energy we have .. I think we should take that approach.”

Jurickson Profar, however, could not help himself.

“I think it motivated us. It motivated us. Like all those things — all (that) lying I don’t know, man. It’s a great team over there. I don’t think they need all (that) lying. We just need to play baseball. … Like Fernando’s dancing. You guys are insulting us. You (are) throwing stuff. You do everything. What do you want him to do? He’s reacting like that, he’s dancing like that because of you guys. And they make it seem like no, he’s dancing and taunting the fans. Do you think he just goes to the field to be dancing? Really?”

Made for this

Tatis certainly did not let any criticism change how he went about his night.

He stood still at the plate watching his home run almost until it had hit the ribbon scoreboard that fronts the second deck of seats beyond left field.

Then he threw his bat, turned toward his teammates, pounded his chest and took off on his home run trot as Petco Park lost its marbles.

Euphoria. pic.twitter.com/n07NpdJ978

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 9, 2024

“Man, when I hit it, I don’t know, I just blacked out, started screaming at my dugout,” he said. “Just the energy through the roof.”

It was Tatis’ fourth home run of the postseason, and he is batting .556/.636/1.333 in the Padres’ five playoff games. That is 10-for-18 with two doubles, four home runs and three walks.

He was 1-for-4 last night.

Here is where he ranks all-time through the first 11 postseason games of a career:

“I think I’ve seen him enough to know he shines when he needs to,” Machado said. “And what he’s doing at the plate right now, it’s been unbelievable. … He doesn’t shy away from the moment, and he rises above it.”

As has been well-documented, Tatis is the son of a major leaguer who grew up around ballparks in the United States and the Dominican Republic. This past winter, he played for his hometown Estrellas Orientales in the Dominican Winter League. Estrellas won its first LIDOM title in 2019, when Tatis played for them as a 19-year-old. He played for them again this winter.

The crowds in the Dominican are notoriously raucous, and Tatis has long spoken adoringly of playing there.

With all that, plus his prodigious talent, it is perhaps no surprise he has stepped into the bright postseason light with such flair and success.

“I feed off that type of energy,” he said after last night’s game. “When the fans are coming, meaningful games, leave everything you have out there, I feel like I just take it to another level of my mindset, my body. Just everything is just through the roof.”

Discipline

It’s not just a knack for the big moment.

It’s about being right in the right space mentally and physically.

Beyond Tatis’ .425/.521/.975 line, he has yet to strike out this postseason.

Tatis is, according to OptaStats, the second player to have four home runs in a five-game span in the postseason without a single strikeout. The other player was Lou Gehrig, from 1928 to ‘32.

It’s pretty simple with Tatis, far more so than with most players. When he is not chasing the outside breaking ball, he is dangerous. Or in the words of hitting coach Victor Rodriguez: “He’s going to hurt somebody.”

Tatis did chase two of the seven pitches he saw outside of the zone last night but none of the three breaking balls that bent away from and/or below the zone.

Tatis has chased just 17.5% of the pitches he has seen outside the zone in the postseason, nearly nine percentage points below his regular season rate. He has chased just three of the 20 (15 percent) sliders and sweepers he has seen outside the zone, well below his 36.5% rate during the regular season.

Said Rodriguez: “He’s locked in.”

Smart Manny

Machado, who led off the second inning with a single, knew the second he took off on Jackson Merrill’s grounder that he would veer left onto the grass before heading back toward second base.

“I’m just trying to make it a tough throw for him,” Machado said of Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who fielded the ball and threw to second trying for the inning’s first out, only to have his throw carom off Machado’s left shoulder and roll into left field.

A runner is allowed to create his own running lane until a throw is made. Machado was heading back in the direction of the base when he was hit.

Manny Machado advances to third on a throwing error by Freddie Freeman pic.twitter.com/FEOpgsUIvm

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 9, 2024

“I’ve looked at it many, many times, replayed it in my head many times,” Freeman said after the game. “I would have done the same thing as a baserunner. … That’s what we’re taught as baserunners – to get in the line (of the throw) — and he did it there.”

This was not all that radically genius by Machado, though he did push it a little bit. But he knows the game, and he knows its boundaries.

And there is something to be said for having the wherewithal to do it in such a big moment.

“It’s something that all 30 teams practice,” Jake Cronenworth said. “When it comes down to it in the moment, whatever point in the season it is, some guys react in different ways. Manny did a great job of it.”

We have discussed this before, most recently at length in the Aug. 31 newsletter.

It was then that I quoted Padres third base coach Tim Leiper saying of Machado: “He’s legitimately, like honestly, probably the smartest player I’ve ever been around.”

Machado said last night was the first time in his career he has been able to take advantage of such a situation.

“That’s highest IQ in baseball,” Tatis said of Machado. “When you see plays like that and you know right away what you need to do, especially in games like that, that’s why Manny’s Manny. This rally wouldn’t have started, probably, if he hadn’t made that play. That’s how huge and how big that was for us.”

Big contributor

As part of explaining why Peralta was in the lineup in Game 2 on Sunday in Los Angeles, Shildt said, “He’s been a big part of why we’re here.”

It is arguably one of the most underappreciated facets of the Padres being able to thrive while Tatis was on the injured list for 2½ months with a stress reaction in his right femur (thigh bone).

Machado got hot right about the time Tatis went on the IL and carried an OPS above .950 for most of the summer. Jackson Merrill got hot just before Tatis went down and really never cooled down.

But neither of those things — or anything else that happened — might have mattered if Peralta had not started to hit.

Peralta signed a minor-league contract with the Padres in mid-May. And in his first 27 games after joining the big-league club on May 22, he batted .196 (11-for-56) with two doubles. He spoke in late June of staying positive, but he also seemed to know the end might be near if he did not start hitting.

He had a pinch-hit single on June 29, right about the time he got a good talking-to by hitting coach Victor Rodriguez.

“I have to be very thankful to Victor,” Peralta said. “He helped me a lot. He sat with me one day and talked to me about good stuff. And that changed everything.”

Said Rodriguez: “It was to remind him of what he was and what he’s done, not to lose sight of that. He was struggling a little bit. I could see he was trying too hard.”

The message was one that Peralta, a veteran of 11 MLB seasons, had heard before but needed to hear again.

“You’re always one swing away,” Peralta said. “That’s what happened to me when I have my first homer in Texas.”

In 40 starts from July 3, the date of that home run against the Rangers, through Sept. 1, the day before Tatis returned, Peralta hit .309 with an .874 OPS. He had eight doubles and seven home runs in that span.

He batted .235/.333/.353 in just 35 at-bats the rest of September and did not start the first three games in the postseason. But Shildt started him Sunday, and Peralta’s two-run homer in the second inning broke a 1-1 tie and put the Padres up for good. His double last night gave them a 3-1 lead.

“It means a lot to me, especially the way I started this year,” Peralta said of his contributions in the postseason. “I (had to) go play in Triple-A and try to find a way back to the big leagues. And finally the San Diego Padres gave me an opportunity and believed in me that I could help the team to do this. I’m just grateful … and it’s a special moment being in this position now and doing my part to help to win for the team.”

What a relief

This is what they are here for.

The Padres had an OK bullpen that was fading before the trade deadline. Then they added Rays setup man Jason Adam and closer Tanner Scott and middle reliever Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins.

Adam and Scott have joined Suarez at the back end of the bullpen to make it practically impenetrable. In games in which two of the three pitch, the Padres are 28-5. In games in which all three pitch, they are 14-1.

“We talked about it the entire second half,” said starting pitcher Michael King, who departed after five innings with the Padres up 6-5. “If you could leave the game with a lead, you almost knew it was going to be lockdown.”

That is what happened last night.

Jeremiah Estrada retired the Dodgers 4-5-6 hitters on 13 pitches in the sixth. Adam set down the bottom of the order, in order, in 15 pitches. Scott struck out Shohei Ohtani and got Mookie Betts on a fly ball to center field before yielding a single to Freeman. Suarez came in, got clean-up hitter Teoscar Hernández to pop out to end the eighth and then closed the game with a perfect ninth having thrown a total of 17 pitches.

Estrada has allowed two runs (one earned) in 16 appearances (13 ⅔ innings) since Sept 1. Adam has allowed five runs in 31 appearances (31 innings) with the Padres. Scott has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) and stranded all 15 runners he has inherited in his 32 appearances (30⅓ innings). Suarez has rebounded from the September stretch in which he blew three of five save chances to allow one run over his past six outings (6 ⅓ innings).

“This is electric,” Adam said. “… It’s to fun to watch. I’d pay for tickets to watch these guys throw.”

Suarez’s switch

Suarez continued to mix up his pitches far more than for most of the regular season, throwing four changeups and a sinker along with his 11 four-seam fastballs last night.

He was also pretty amped.

His fastball averaged 99.9 mph, up 0.8 mph from his season average.

“It’s always good to keep working, keep perfecting things, keep looking ahead and getting better,” Suarez said through interpreter Danny Sanchez.

Last night was the 11th time Suarez got at least four outs for a save or a win. His 10 times doing so during the regular season led the majors.

Cease up next

The Padres will go with Dylan Cease as their starting pitcher in Game 4.

You can read about the two teams’ pitching situations in Jeff Sanders’ notebook (here) from last night. The Dodgers will start a relief pitcher, according to Roberts.

Cease said he wants tonight to be like a “normal start.”

That doesn’t seem likely after he threw 82 pitches in 3⅓ innings on Saturday. That’s three days’ rest, one less than what is considered regular rest.

Cease has been a relative marathon man this season, throwing 97 pitches or more in an MLB-high 23 of his 32 starts (not including the Aug. 6 start in Pittsburgh truncated by rain.) Tonight, the Padres would likely be thrilled if he could keep them in the game while making it through the order twice.

The move also means Yu Darvish would start on regular rest if Game 5 is necessary.

Joe’s timing

Joe Musgrove is nearing a decision on when to undergo Tommy John surgery.

He wants to be around the team for the duraction of this postseason run, which will be complicated if he has major surgery. But he is considering whether it will be worth it to have the surgery immediately, largely because that would likely mean he was beginning a throwing progression about the time spring training starts.

Feeling like he is participating in spring training is important to Musgrove.

He hopes he would miss just a few days in the playoffs after surgery and then be cautious when he does return to the clubhuse and dugout.

Scoreboard

If this was April or May or, really, any month during the regular season, we would be talking a lot about a trend the Padres are following this postseason.

They have scored 20 of their 30 runs in the first two innings of games. They have scored 23 runs against opposing starting pitchers.

It still bears mentioning that this probably needs to change. Adding on is important.

But all that matters in the postseason is results.

“It’s the only thing,” Cronenworth said.

The reality is that the Padres have faced two of the best bullpens in the major leagues. The Braves’ bullpen ranked third and the Dodgers’ fourth in ERA in the regular season.

“They have a great team over there too, you know,” Profar said. “So it’s not going to be every inning, six runs.”

What could happen

The scenarios are this:

• The Padres and Mets win today, and the NL Championship Series begins Sunday in San Diego.
• The Padres and the Phillies win today, and the Padres wait to see what happens in Game 5 between the Mets and Phillies. Because if the Phillies win that series, the Padres are headed to Philadelphia.
• If the Padres lose today, they go to Los Angeles for Game 5 on Friday. Should they win that game, they will spray champagne, shower and get on buses bound either for San Diego or LAX.

Homers … and a win

King was at times excellent last night. Like most of the time.

Notably, he left a sweeper up and in the center of the plate against Hernández that the Home Run Derby champion hammered 403 feet to center field for a grand slam in the third inning.

“It’s just unfortunate that probably his worst pitch of the night got punished,” catcher Kyle Higashioka said. “Leading up to that, he wasn’t giving up too much hard contact. They did a good job putting the ball in play. And that happens. Other than the grand slam, I thought he was pretty dominant all night.”

King ended up getting the win, his second of the postseason. It just wasn’t anywhere near the performance he put forth in Game 1 of the wild-card series, when he shut out the Braves for seven innings while striking out 12.

“It pays to have a good offense,” he said.

King did retire the final eight batters he faced to get through the fifth inning.

“Hung a pitch to a really good hitter, which sucks,” said King, who had given up three home runs in his previous 81 innings. “But the bullpen was incredible and a ‘W’ is a ‘W’.”

King assessed that “the sweeper today wasn’t great in general.”  But he didn’t particularly regret the one that Betts hit out to left field in the first inning to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead.

“It was executed away,” he said. “I’ll live with a good hitter hitting an executed pitch.”

King, you may have noticed, is sporting a beard. He plans to keep it for the duration of the postseason.

It’s his first one.

He spent the past five seasons pitching for the Yankees, who famously do not allow facial hair. Before that, he was drafted by the Marlins, who did not allow their minor leaguers to have facial hair. And his coach at Boston College had the same prohibition, as did his high school coach.

LFGSD

Jorge Alfaro thought his agent was kidding when he called him Sunday and said the Padres wanted him to come to San Diego to throw out the first pitch for Game 3.

Then he got excited.

“I’m like, being back in San Diego, right here with all these guys, all these fans?” he said last night. “Crazy. All the vibe. And like, get to see these guys again. I mean, it was so many feelings and a lot of things going through my head. It’s always good to be back in San Diego.”

Alfaro was with the Padres for a short time, but he left a legacy with his walk-off heroics and, moreover, his screaming “Let’s (expletive) go San Diego” at the end of the ensuing TV interviews.

“I walk into the stadium, so many feelings,” said Alfaro, who wore a jacket gifted to him y the Padres with his signature saying stitched on one sleeve. “… San Diego is always gonna have a big place in my heart. They treat me good. The vibe here is different. Been playing in a lot of teams, and you can tell the difference right away. You know when, when you step on the field, when you are on the field, when you are in the (stands), you can feel the difference. This is a beautiful city, beautiful people. Good vibes.”

Tidbits

• You can read a cool story (here) about how a Padres fan showed kindness to a young Dodgers fan in Kirk Kenney’s  “Scene & Heard” column from last night.
• Cronenworth’s single in the second inning was his first hit in 14 at-bats since the postseason started. He finished 2-for-4. Said Cronenworth: “Every day in the postseason you’re 0-for-0. You can look at the scoreboard and say whatever, but every day is a new day.”
• The Padres surrendered eight grand slams during the regular season, tied with the Mets for second most in the majors behind the Red Sox (nine). King allowed two during the regular season, tied with nine others for second most behind Edward Cabrera.
• Luis Arraez would prefer to play in the field every day, but the Padres have mostly had him at DH. When Ha-Seong Kim was healthy, there simply wasn’t room in the infield. Lately, the team has even judged Donovan Solano was the better defensive option. But with Peralta as the DH the past two nights, Arraez has played outstanding at first. This is just the second time he has played successive games in the field since late July.
• My affinity for obscure, random and subjective baseball stats is often manifested in this space. Here is another, from OptaStats: The Padres are the first team to ever win a postseason game when allowing a grand slam, scoring in just one inning and not scoring after the second inning.
• Xander Bogaerts was 0-for-4 last night and is batting .158 (3-for-19) this postseason. His fielder’s choice grounder did give him his fourth RBI, which is tied with Machado and Peralta for fourth on the team.
• Higashioka moved into a tie with Merrill for second on the team with five RBIs this postseason. Tatis leads the Padres with seven RBIs.
• The Padres are the only team besides the Orioles, who were eliminated in two games, to have not stolen a base (or even attempted one) this postseason.

All right, that’s it for me.

Talk to you tomorrow.