SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

Israeli airstrikes have killed the longtime leader of the militant group Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in Lebanon, and that deepens the conflict on Israel’s northern border while the country also battles Hamas in Gaza in the south. And, of course, it all presents new challenges to the U.S. NPR political correspondent Susan Davis joins us. Sue, thanks so much for being with us.

SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Always good to be with you, Scott.

SIMON: President Biden has tried to keep Gaza from becoming a regional war. Neither President Netanyahu or the Islamist militant group seem to be cooperating with him. What does he do next?

DAVIS: Well, the White House hasn’t yet responded to his killing, but it would appear to be an immediate setback to the Biden administration’s push just this week, along with European and Middle East allies, for a 21-day cease-fire to prevent this conflict from getting worse. The U.S. hasn’t frankly proven to have much sway over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He came to the U.S. this week and basically dismissed the cease-fire plan in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly. So the challenge for Biden, as well as whoever wins the presidential election, is that the U.S. is going to remain deeply invested in ending this conflict but doesn’t have the decisive influence it would like to have to do it.

SIMON: Susan, as I don’t have to tell you, Election Day might be November 5, but early balloting has already begun in a number of states. Donald Trump and the Republican Party have been suspicious about early and mail-in balloting. Does this affect their campaigns now?

DAVIS: I mean, this is one of the big questions of 2024. And you’re right, Election Day is now. Ballots have already started going out. Early voting has begun in about a half-dozen states. More will follow throughout the month of October. As much as half of the vote could already be cast by the time November 5 comes around. Historically, the Democratic Party has promoted and organized get-out-the-vote operations, prioritizing these early methods of voting. Donald Trump obviously spent years questioning whether mail-in balloting promotes election fraud. It does not.

Trump has changed his tune on that. In recent months, he said all methods of voting are, quote, “good options.” But the Trump campaign has also done something different. He has largely outsourced its get out – his get-out-the-vote operation to third-party groups. These groups support him, but this is work that is traditionally done by the campaign itself and the Republican National Committee. It’s one of those risky bets that, if he wins this election, will be seen as a brilliant move, and if he loses this election, it will be seen as a critical mistake.

SIMON: And abortion rights are seen as a vulnerable political issue for many Republicans, according to polls. And this week, a local NBC affiliate got hold of a leaked recording of the Ohio Senate Republican candidate Bernie Moreno at a fundraiser. He criticized Democrats for being single-issue voters, especially on abortion rights, and said, I’m going to quote now, “OK. A little crazy, by the way, but especially for women that are past 50, I’m thinking to myself, I don’t think that’s an issue for you.”

DAVIS: Yeah. It’s been a tough election for menopausal women, Scott. You know, these anecdotes are why this election could see one of the widest gender divides in U.S. history. According to our own NPR/PBS News/Marist polling, this is virtually a tied presidential race, but Kamala Harris is buoyed by a double-digit advantage with women, and Donald Trump has a double-digit advantage with men. And a lot of that divide is fueled by women’s support for abortion and reproductive rights.

And Republican candidates up and down the ballot have just had a hard time talking about this issue in a compassionate way that does not alienate women voters. And to that Senate race, in particular, you reference – look, Ohio is one of the Republican Party’s top targets to win in order to take control of the Senate. This is a red state that Trump’s going to win, but if the incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown can win this race, Democrats will say it’s largely because of the issue of abortion.

SIMON: Let me ask you about North Carolina, where Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson seems – at least for the moment – is staying on the ballot despite calls for him to leave.

DAVIS: You know, he’s becoming a bit of a zombie candidate. Most of his staff has quit the race. The Republican Governors Association has pulled its support in all of its ad spending. And even before the latest controversy in a string of controversies around him, his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, had a commanding lead in the polls. You know, miracles happen in politics, but that doesn’t seem likely for Mark Robinson this year.

Bigger question is, does it affect the ballot otherwise? Does it depress Republican turnout? Does he hurt the Republican Party brand with independent and swing voters? This is one of those seven states that was decided by a very narrow margin in 2020. And it’s a growing state. And it’s an absolute must-win for Donald Trump in his path to 270 electoral votes. He probably cannot win the White House without North Carolina.

SIMON: NPR’s Susan Davis, thanks so much.

DAVIS: You’re welcome.

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