The Loons must win at Sporting Kansas City on Saturday or they will be eliminated and miss the playoffs for the first time since their second MLS season in 2018.

They still can finish as high as seventh seed and avoid a wild-card, play-in game among the nine Western Conference teams that make the playoffs. But they’ll still need help if they first help themselves. They haven’t won in Kansas City since 2020, when they pulled off a 3-0 playoff game upset.

Playoffstatus.com gives the Loons a 38% chance of making the playoffs. All Western Conference teams start Decision Day play at 8 p.m. Central time on Saturday. A closer look:

The Loons will finish seventh and advance to Round One’s best-of-three games series if:

They win and San Jose loses or ties against Austin FC, and FC Dallas loses or ties against L.A. Galaxy and Portland loses or ties against Houston.

The Loons will finish eighth and host the wild-card game against the ninth-seeded team if:

They win and San Jose loses or ties against Austin FC, and FC Dallas loses or ties against the Galaxy.

The Loons will finish ninth and play at the eighth-seeded team in the wild-card game if:

They win and San Jose loses or ties against Austin.

Or: They win and Dallas loses or ties against the Galaxy.

Or: They win and Portland loses or ties against Houston.

Tiebreakers

The first three tiebreakers are total wins, goal differential and total goals scored.

Portland has 11 wins but is minus-10 in goal differential. Dallas, San Jose and the Loons all have 10 wins.