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What’s the impact on Illinois if the federal government shuts down?

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U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin readily admits he thinks the public has tuned out the often-dire warnings about the effect a federal government shutdown will have because repeated threats over the years have often been averted by last-minute spending deals.

“I’ve been through it. This funding the government is a pain in the neck,” Durbin said in Chicago earlier this week. “I’ve been through this so many times. We always yank the football right at the last moment.”

But this time, Durbin’s football analogy looks about as possible as a Chicago Bears winning season. A Congress facing a 12:01 a.m. Sunday shutdown deadline finds itself stalled amid a battle among Republicans who control the House and their opposition to a bipartisan short-term funding measure backed by senators.

There have been 10 formal government shutdowns — a gap in federal funding — since 1980 and three in the last 10 years, including the record 35-day shutdown that ended in January 2019.

The effects of a shutdown depend on its duration. And the longer it lasts, its impact grows more severe.

In Illinois, most immediately, an estimated 42,637 federal workers in the state would go without paychecks and those deemed to be nonessential workers would be furloughed, curbing the availability of services from federal agencies.

The military, federal law enforcement, Transportation Security Administration airport inspectors and air traffic controllers all would remain on the job, but without getting paychecks. But in 2019 the lengthy duration of the shutdown led TSA workers and air traffic controllers to call in sick in large numbers, affecting airports and creating delays throughout the nation’s aviation system.

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The U.S. Postal Service, which is not funded by tax dollars, would continue delivering the mail.

Social Security checks and veteran’s benefits would continue despite a shutdown. But anyone having problems would find few federal workers able to help them.

Funding for more than 167,000 Illinois recipients under the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants and Children was forecast to continue for the short term but could end if there is a prolonged shutdown.

The Federal Housing Administration and the Small Business Administration also would be forced to stop processing existing loan requests and the SBA could not issue new loans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture also would be forced to curtail food safety inspections and stop processing farm loans.

On Thursday, Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the Democratic-led Senate, urged House Republicans to support the Senate’s short-term continuing resolution to fund the government through Nov. 17. But Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy vowed he would not take up the Senate legislation, making a government shutdown appear all but inevitable.

Before McCarthy’s announcement, Durbin put the blame on McCarthy and a rebellious faction of far-right lawmakers in his caucus.

“Unfortunately, over in the House, Speaker McCarthy has declared this bipartisan Senate CR dead on arrival,” Durbin said Thursday in a speech on the Senate floor.

“For reasons beyond my understanding, he has chosen the far-right rebellion of a few MAGA House Republicans over the continued orderly work of our government,” Durbin said, using the acronym of former President Donald Trump’s motto, “Make America Great Again.”

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McCarthy, Durbin said, “has chosen to put partisanship and politics above the American people. For however long it takes the Speaker to gain control of this small faction of his party, essential social services will be slowed and federal employees and military servicemembers will go without paychecks for their families.”

Far-right downstate Republican U.S. Rep. Mary Miller of rural Oakland made clear her opposition to the Senate deal and senators’ insistence that any funding package include aid to Ukraine in battling the Russian invasion.

On Friday, after McCarthy was unable to get Republican support to pass a short-term spending bill, Miller said in a statement that she voted against it “because I will not be part of the process to kick government funding down the road until the holidays, when Senate and House ‘insiders’ will agree to ram through some massive omnibus with Ukraine funding behind closed doors.”

Miller was one of more than 20 Republicans to reject McCarthy and House GOP leadership on the bill. She said she had directed the House clerk to withhold her pay if a shutdown occurs.

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s office said should the federal shutdown occur it will team up with Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs’ office to offer low-interest or no-interest loans to affected federal workers. The governor and treasurer did the same thing in 2019.

[email protected]

Chicago Tribune’s Dan Petrella contributed.

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