(NEXSTAR) – The start of fall may be just days away, but the weather forecast in many places isn’t matching the calendar.
Summery weather is lingering in many states, and is likely to stick around a bit longer. An updated forecast, released by the Climate Prediction Center Thursday, shows warmer-than-average temperatures predicted for most states between October and December.
The Southwest is most likely to see weather that’s hotter than normal. Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas have a 60% to 70% chance of an abnormally warm fall, according to the seasonal outlook.
Most of the country is also leaning toward a warm season, with the chances generally growing stronger as you move south. The situation is less clear along the U.S.-Canada border; states shaded in white (below) have equal chances of a warm fall, cool fall, or average fall.
The Southwest isn’t just going to be hot – the forecast also predicts it will be dry. That could worsen drought conditions that are already starting to take hold in the region.
Northern states have the opposite outlook, leaning toward more precipitation than usual.
Those predictions are consistent with the La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to take hold in the next few months. La Niña tends to bring more rain to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, while keeping it drier in the southern half of the country.
As for Hawaii, which isn’t pictured in the forecast maps above, the Climate Prediction Center expects the islands to see above-normal temperatures through the start of winter. Above-normal precipitation could come late in the year into early 2025.