Chicago Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks’ pedigree speaks for itself 11 years into his big-league career.
The longest-tenured Cub and a 2016 World Series champion has been a stabilizing force in the rotation through the organization’s transition the last few years.
“His place in Cubs history is secure,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Friday. “I don’t think anything is going to change that.”
Being able to control how the twilight of their career plays out is something that most major leaguers aren’t afforded. Hendricks’ partnership with the Cubs has long felt like a union destined to finish together, with the veteran’s repertoire and command-based success a mix that could bode well as the 34-year-old reached the back end of his career.
But after the Cubs picked up his $16 million club option for 2024 in November, the last year of the extension he signed in 2019, Hendricks’ nightmarish start to his season is raising difficult questions. While there were some encouraging signs in his outing Sunday against the Miami Marlins, Hendricks allowed four runs in four innings in the Cubs’ 6-3 loss.
Through five starts, Hendricks’ 12.00 ERA is almost four runs higher than the next closest pitcher in the major leagues (Washington’s Patrick Corbin, 8.06) among the 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings. His expected 7.00 ERA (xERA) would also put him last, though the gap wouldn’t be as significant between Hendricks and others at the bottom.
Among the positives Sunday: Hendricks didn’t walk anyone and struck out a season-high five batters while his curveball, a pitch he wants to use more this year, got two whiffs on the Marlins’ three swings against it and he also produced a called strike among the seven he threw. He’s been unlucky, too, with a .392 BABIP this year.
It’s hard to overlook the continuing problems, however. Hendricks again surrendered a home run — his major-league-leading eighth — on a mammoth 460-foot blast by Jesús Sánchez in the second inning. Then, as has happened too often, the game quickly got away from him in the fourth. The Marlins tallied four consecutive singles to begin the inning, the last three ambushing the first pitch of the at-bat, to turn a tied game into a two-run Miami lead. Hendricks recovered to retire the next three Marlins on ground outs with another run scoring in the process.
Although Hendricks had only thrown 56 pitches, manager Craig Counsell turned to the bullpen to begin the fifth with the top of Miami’s order due up.
“There were some positive signs,” Counsell told reporters after the game. “Some good steps, some positive steps, some good innings, for sure. Some took-control-of-the-inning type innings. But we need better results, frankly.”
The results have become increasingly troubling through Hendricks’ five starts. He’s not missing bats in the strike zone, owning a career-worst 93.2 Contact%, and, more broadly, Hendricks just isn’t generating as much swing-and-miss as he typically has, his career-low 15.3 Whiff% nearly 6% lower than in 2023.
“His execution and his location have been poor,” Hoyer said. “I’m not saying anything out of school, he knows he needs to pitch better, but to me it’s an execution and a location thing and it’s about us figuring out what things mechanically he needs to change to get back to that point.
“It’s really important for us to have him be a big part of the rotation, I don’t think it’s any question.”
Hendricks’ velocity has held steady, maintaining the uptick he tapped into last year as he averages 87.8 mph on his four-seam fastball. That hasn’t stopped teams from feasting on his heaters. Through Sunday’s start, opposing hitters have posted a .625 average, 1.750 slugging percentage and .920 wOBA against his fastball, which hasn’t recorded a strikeout yet. Hendricks’ sinker hasn’t faired much better, with a .500 average against, a .789 slugging percentage and a .558 wOBA.
“He’s had, not to this level, but he’s had struggles in the past and gotten through them,” Hoyer said. “To me, the most important thing is the velocity is there and I think that gives me some hope that once he gets the execution right that he’ll be back.”
A decision on Hendricks’ role in the rotation will likely be forced when left-hander Justin Steele (left hamstring strain) is ready to come off the injured list. Steele threw live batting practice Sunday at Wrigley Field and after coming out of that feeling good, Counsell told reporters Steele will head to Arizona and pitch in an extended spring training game Friday. Steele could be in line to begin a rehab assignment after that, putting his return on the horizon.
Someone will need to get bumped from the rotation for Steele, though, as Counsell has often said it’s about putting together a pitching staff that can get 27 outs. Even with that more holistic view, Steele will be taking somebody’s starts. Given how well right-hander Javier Assad has pitched, getting into the sixth inning in three of his four starts while posting a 2.11 ERA, Hendricks’ performance will inevitably continue to be scrutinized.
The Cubs are expected to reach the postseason this year, and sometimes that means difficult conversations and decisions even with someone of Hendricks’ stature.
“There’s a level of concern,” Hoyer said, “but I’m also very confident he’ll figure it out.”