You can’t say I didn’t warn you.
It wasn’t pretty early on against Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh ended up losing its first game of the season, but Justin Fields did finish as the top quarterback in fantasy last week.
Fields produced 312 passing yards, 55 rushing yards and three touchdowns (one passing, two rushing), and he was kind enough to bring George Pickens along for the ride to the tune of seven receptions for 113 yards. Two-thirds of my Steelers stack produced 56.28 points on DraftKings — Pittsburgh’s defense was closer to Charmin than Steel — and partnered with Nico Collins (36.10 DK points) to get The Lineup off to a great start last Sunday.
Jordan Mason (27 DK points), James Conner (21.30), Marvin Harrison Jr. (15.50) and Tre Tucker (15.40) all helped me close strong in the late games and The Lineup placed 2,240th out of 191,176 contestants.
In fact, Fields, Pickens, Collins and Conner were all included in stephon828’s Milly Maker-winning lineup. One of stephon828’s shrewdest moves was stacking Taysom Hill with Atlanta’s defense.
Daily Fantasy players are typically hesitant to roster an opposing player and a team’s defense, but quarterback is really the only position where there’s strong negative correlation.
It makes sense to dump the ball off to a tight end when an offense is struggling to move the ball. Obviously, that’s not what happened with the Saints and Hill. He’s more of a cheat code than anything else.
Something to consider going forward.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $117.86 this season, so I’m in the black $52.86 with an average score of 128.93 points through four weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5 Lineup
QB: Josh Allen, Bills ($7,700)
Allen has been all over the place on DraftKings the first four weeks of the season, with two games surpassing 30 points and two games south of 10. His bad games were a blowout win against the Dolphins and last week’s 35-10 loss to the Ravens. The Texans are favored by 1½-points and will almost certainly score enough to force the Bills to stay aggressive. Not to mention, the grudge match percolating underneath this matchup with Allen’s former top receiver Stefon Diggs.
RB: Josh Jacobs, Packers ($6,400)
D’Andre Swift’s big game last week was a reminder to start all your running backs against the Rams this season. Jacobs hasn’t scored a TD yet, so I’m expecting positive regression to work its magic against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Plus, some may be scared off by Emanuel Wilson’s recent usage.
RB: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Giants ($4,300)
Devin Singletary likely won’t play at Seattle with a groin injury. Tracy was an all-purpose star at Purdue last year. The converted wide receiver forced 46 missed tackles on only 113 carries, while finishing fourth in the nation in yards after contact per rushing attempt for the Boilermakers. The G-Men will also be without Malik Nabers (concussion), who is leading the NFL with 13 targets per game. I don’t anticipate Eric Gray playing much, so Tracy should be game-script proof as the best receiving option out of the backfield.
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,000)
Utilizing value plays like Tracy allows us to include a stud receiver like Cincinnati’s Chase. He’s gone eight straight games without receiving double-digit targets, the longest such streak in his career by far. Half of those games were without Joe Burrow. Chase has had at least 10 targets against Baltimore in four of six career games and the Bengals-Ravens matchup provides one of the highest game totals (49 points) on the slate. This is a “smash” opportunity.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts ($6,000)
Wheels are up on the Indy pass attack with Joe Flacco under center and Jonathan Taylor ruled out. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in points allowed (27.3) and 31st in passing yards allowed (272.8).
WR: Curtis Samuel, Bills ($4,200)
Khalil Shakir has been ruled out so Samuel will start at slot receiver this week. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady and Allen both made a point earlier this week how important it was for Buffalo’s offense to get the versatile playmaker going, and that was before they knew Shakir wouldn’t play. Brady coached Samuel with the Panthers in 2020, when he set career-highs in receptions (77), receiving yards (851) and rushing (200 yards on 41 carries). Don’t be surprised if Samuel leads the team in targets this week. According to FantasyPros, the Texans have allowed the most receiving TDs and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
TE: Mark Andrews, Ravens ($4,000)
In all honesty, I couldn’t find a single metric to support using Andrews this week. The former All-Pro is coming off two straight games without a reception and the Bengals are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. However, my spidey-sense tells me Baltimore will need Andrews to keep pace at Cincinnati. The last six games between these division rivals have averaged 57½ points. Andrews still possesses one of the highest ceilings at the position and at this price, the return could be significant, especially with his ownership suppressed by his recent play. So I guess I’m going with the most important metric of all, my gut.
FLEX: Jayden Reed, Packers ($6,500)
My original play for this week was to use Jacobs purely as leverage against lineups who stack Jordan Love with Reed and/or Dontayvion Wicks or Tucker Kraft. But the versatile receiver has been too darn good not to use when given the opportunity. In his last 10 games with Love active, Reed has produced 52 receptions on 68 targets, 872 total yards and 10 total TDs, which equals out to 25.9 points per game on DraftKings.
DST: Denver Broncos ($2,900)
The Broncos are the fourth-highest scoring defense in fantasy through four weeks, scoring double-digit points in three of four games. Denver is allowing only 13.8 points per game and rank second in the NFL with 16 sacks (only the Vikings have more). Much like Minnesota the last few weeks, the Broncos are underpriced on DraftKings with a matchup against the Raiders at home. Las Vegas is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season.