The meeting of the two leaders — who have become pariahs in the West — marks just how much they need each other at this time.
For Putin, it is mostly a short-term need for Soviet-era ammunition to prosecute his war in Ukraine; Kim’s needs are more long term, including technical assistance to develop weapons and a space program and boost his economy.
Kim was greeted with diplomatic pomp and hospitality. Putin guided him on a tour of a key Russian spaceport, showing off its technology, before they dined on duck salad and crab dumplings. Putin even gave Kim, a car enthusiast, a lift in his presidential limousine.
Neither leader announced an arms deal after their summit, and may never do so publicly. The Kremlin said the two countries’ cooperation on certain “sensitive” areas should not be made public, and there was no joint communiqué or news conference.
“One way or other, Putin’s actions show that he takes Kim very seriously,” said Lee Jai-chun, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia. “The special treatment from Putin is a boost for Kim, the leader of one of the poorest countries in the world.”
Kim’s sudden strong hand
With the Russian war on Ukraine dragging on, Putin is running low on ammunition and world leaders backing his violation of recognized international borders. In Kim, he can find both.
North Korea is believed to have a large stockpile of dated artillery shells and rockets that would be compatible with Russian weapons systems. North Korea also has a production capacity that could help Russia maintain its high ammunition burn rate.
That means Kim suddenly has a rare bargaining chip. And it’s a reversal in their relationship, given North Korea’s history of military dependence on the Soviet Union, including in its Soviet-supported invasion of the South that sparked the 1950-53 Korean War. The war ended in a cease-fire, and both Koreas have maintained a stockpile of ammunition and weapons in case conflict resumes.
On Wednesday, Kim said he stands by “all decisions of President Putin and the Russian government.” He said they are aligned in their “fight against imperialism,” referring to confrontation with the United States and its allies.
“If Kim’s eyes are on the ball and the bigger prize, it’s the potential for the two countries to get situated as the thorn in the U.S. side,” said Soo Kim, policy practice area lead at Virginia-based consulting firm LMI and a former CIA analyst.
“We read this as a sign of desperation for Kim and Putin. And yes, that may still be true, but crisis may have turned into an opportunity for Kim and Putin.”
Their relationship has long been a transactional one — and in Kim, a fellow international outcast, Putin can find an anti-American partner willing to needle the United States, experts said.
“Russia takes advantage of any person or any tool or any entity to stand up against the U.S.-led security movement,” said Wi Sung-lac, a former South Korean ambassador to Russia and former South Korean chief negotiator to the six-party nuclear negotiations. “So Kim Jong Un, despite his bad reputation, was adopted by Putin as a useful tool.”
Together, Kim and Putin are sending the message that they are willing to flout the U.S.-led sanctions for their gain, Wi said. For example, two of the North Korean officials who visited Russia — a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council — face a travel ban under U.N. sanctions.
“One of the signals that Putin and Kim Jong Un are delivering is that North Korea and Russia don’t care about international norms, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Wi said.
Kim’s long-term interests
Kim toured the Vostochny Cosmodrome with an entourage of top leaders in charge of weapons production, defense strategy and space technology — a sign that he is interested in long-term gains from his dealings with Putin, analysts say.
There is an asymmetry to current transactions between Moscow and Pyongyang, wrote Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, assistant professor at the University of Tokyo: “Russia’s benefits are more short-term with the acquisition of ammunition, while North Korea’s are more long-term with Pyongyang securing technical assistance for the research and development of space and advanced weapons technologies.”
Kim is barreling forward on a five-year military plan to boost his weaponry, which is key to securing a stronger bargaining position should he return to denuclearization talks with the United States.
Space technology, specifically the development of military reconnaissance satellites, is a top priority for Kim.
Kim’s tour of the space center with Putin, and his planned visit to Russian aviation and military facilities, suggest that cooperation between the two countries could expand into those areas.
“Satellite cooperation will be disguised as a peaceful scientific cooperation. North Korea is clearly looking for Russia’s [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] satellite technologies,” said Go Myong-hyun, a defense expert and research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
Russia could also provide tracking and information support to North Korea for its satellite launches, Go said. North Korea conducted two failed satellite launches in the past six months and has vowed to test again in October.
Putin said he spoke to Kim about the development of agriculture, about which Russia “has something to offer.” Humanitarian assistance to North Korea is not restricted by the United Nations sanctions. Putin also mentioned “interesting projects” with North Korea in transportation and logistics.
Putin accepted Kim’s invitation to visit Pyongyang, and they are likely to make further inroads into their bilateral relationship in the near future, analysts say.
Still, it is not clear whether Russia will actually transfer its coveted and advanced defense technology to North Korea. Even if Russia were to do so, it would take place behind closed doors to evade Western sanctions, experts say.
“If Russia had not suffered losses in the Ukraine conflict, Putin would not have reached out to Kim so desperately like now,” said Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Ewha Womans University. “North Korea also understands that the recent advances are transactional, and Kim is seeking to secure quick wins from Russia. Among those are food, energy and fertilizers.”
Analysts say they are watching how Beijing will react to the warming relations between Pyongyang and Moscow — and whether the three countries will be working together more closely. China, North Korea’s economic lifeline, shares the other two countries’ concerns about rising U.S. influence in the region and increasing security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea But an open endorsement of North Korean arms sales to Russia would undercut Beijing claims of neutrality in the war in Ukraine.
In an apparent attempt to distance itself from the summit, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday called Kim’s visit “something between their two countries” even as it underscored that Beijing’s ties with Pyongyang are making progress.
“Beijing doesn’t want to get into some kind of new northern triangle because a new Cold War is totally against China’s interests,” said Zhu Feng, dean of international studies at Nanjing University. “To see some kind of resumption of a military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang would be a bit scary for China.”
Christian Shepherd in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.