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Santa Ana Winds Return as L.A. Swings From Halloween Rain to a Mid-80s Weekend

Offshore winds build all week and a weak Santa Ana event could arrive Friday, pushing downtown to 85 on Saturday and Sunday, with the warmest readings near the coast and gusts up to 45 mph in the mountains.

By Herald Staff ·
Tall, slender fan palms bend sideways in a strong dry wind along a sunlit hillside street, with dry fronds blowing across the empty road, the downtown Los Angeles skyline and brown, snowless San Gabriel Mountains sharp beneath a cloudless deep blue sky in warm late-afternoon light.
The National Weather Service expects the strongest offshore winds Friday and Saturday, with highs in the lower to mid-80s across almost all of the coasts and valleys before cooling begins Sunday into Monday.

Three days after Los Angeles got its first wet Halloween in more than a decade, the weather is swinging hard the other way. Dry offshore winds will build through the week and a weak Santa Ana event could arrive by Friday, pushing temperatures into the mid-80s across much of the coast and valleys this weekend, according to the National Weather Service's Los Angeles office.

In its Tuesday morning forecast discussion, the office described "a general warming trend and periods of offshore winds through the week," with the warmest and windiest conditions likely Friday through Sunday. Tuesday itself was running a little cooler than normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s as a weakening cold front brushed the Central Coast with a slight chance of showers.

How Warm It Gets

The weather service's point forecast for downtown Los Angeles climbs steadily: a high of 74 on Tuesday, 75 on Wednesday and 78 on Thursday, then 82 on Friday and 85 on both Saturday and Sunday before easing to 82 on Monday. Forecasters expect skies to stay clear and the ground to stay dry throughout, with no chance of rain listed through Monday.

At the coast, the warm-up is just as noticeable. The forecast for Los Angeles International Airport calls for 72 on Tuesday, 76 on Thursday, 79 on Friday, 82 on Saturday and 83 on Sunday, with overnight lows rising from the upper 50s into the low 60s.

That pattern, with beaches nearly as hot as inland neighborhoods, is typical of offshore flow, when air sinking off the mountains warms as it descends and pushes the cool ocean breeze back out to sea. The forecast discussion said highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s are likely by Friday, "warmest coasts to coastal valleys," and that each day through Saturday should add 2 to 4 degrees.

"The heat risk would probably be more likely near the coast," Devin Black, a meteorologist with the weather service in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times on Monday. The Oxnard office said moderate heat risk could prompt targeted heat advisories near the coast as early as Friday. Forecasters at UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences said in their Monday synopsis that they did not expect 90-degree readings unless the high-pressure ridge ends up stronger than forecast.

Where the Wind Will Blow

Gusts of 20 to 40 mph will be common in the mountains, valleys and foothills at times through Thursday, the weather service said, mostly below advisory levels, though it put the chance that low-end wind advisories will be needed at 20%. By Friday, "a low end Santa Ana Wind event may materialize," with early estimates of peak gusts of 25 to 45 mph, strongest in the mountains.

Friday and Saturday should bring the strongest winds. The forecast discussion singled out a band running from Santa Clarita through Simi Valley and out to Point Mugu, where gusts could reach low-end advisory levels. In Orange County and the Inland Empire, the weather service's San Diego office said offshore winds look strongest on Saturday and Sunday mornings, with top gusts near 40 mph in foothills and some inland valleys, and weekend highs near the coast 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

Fire Risk, Tempered by the Rain

Warm, dry, gusty weather in November is the classic setup for Southern California wildfires, and the Oxnard office said fire weather concerns "will be on the rise" during the stretch. It added that last weekend's rain "may somewhat dampen or delay this concern." That storm dropped a quarter of an inch to an inch across most of the Los Angeles coast and metro area, with about an inch and a half in Alhambra, the Times reported.

To the south, San Diego Gas & Electric's weather briefing said soils and dead brush remain damp from the rain and that recent green-up should help limit large fire potential, even as humidity west of the mountains drops to 15% to 25%.

On the Water, and What Comes Next

Small craft advisories were in effect Tuesday for parts of the coastal waters, and the Times reported that northwest swells generated by storms over the North Pacific were likely to reach the coastline starting Thursday and peak Saturday.

Relief should start Sunday into Monday as the offshore flow weakens substantially, the weather service said, bringing 3 to 5 degrees of cooling over two days, though Monday's highs would still be well above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. "Looking into the crystal ball," the forecast discussion said, the next chance of rain comes around Wednesday or Thursday, Nov. 11 or 12. Paul Steward, a meteorologist with the weather service in San Diego, told the Times that "we might possibly get a return of some wet weather again the following week," while Black said that return remains uncertain.

Original reporting by The Los Angeles Herald, drawing on the National Weather Service's Los Angeles and San Diego offices, the Los Angeles Times, UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and San Diego Gas & Electric, as linked above.

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